Research On Internal Equity Of Car License Lottery Policy

In the new era,the public’s pursuit of a better life is changing day by day.The demand for travel is growing rapidly.Private car ownership continues to climb,leading to increasingly prominent traffic problems.Since 2010,cities in China have been implementing the Car License Lottery Policy.When license plates become a scarce public resource,there is a risk that the benefits of social and economic development will not fairly benefit the community at large.The fairness of the Car License Lottery Policy has long been discussed.In terms of the internal fairness of the policy implementation itself,most people believed that "equal probability of winning for all participants" meant fairness based on egalitarian thinking in the early stages.However,in practice,the number of "unsuccessful" participants accumulates and non-egalitarian policies emerge,such as "Stage Lottery Policy" and "Family Lottery Policy".It breaks the early definition of fairness.So what exactly makes a policy fair to its participants?Is the definition of fairness a single constant? Is the equal probability of winning before the lottery sufficient to prove that the lottery policy is truly fair to all groups of participants once it is implemented?This study attempts to move beyond the traditional equity studies of the Car License Lottery Policy which are focused on macro-qualitative analysis.Using implementation data,simulation data,and survey data to study the actual and perceived equity of the policy quantitatively.Group differences are considered,and internal and external factors are taken into account.The fairness of the Car License Lottery Policy is fully explored based on the near and long term.The research results provide an important theoretical basis and data support for evaluating the effectiveness of internal fairness in the implementation process of the policy and improving and refining the policy in a targeted manner.The study provides a full analysis of the internal equity of the policy based on various types of equity theories and classifications.Based on egalitarianism and Rawlsianism,the equity of the Car License Lottery Policy is divided into horizontal and vertical equity in terms of whether it favors disadvantaged groups.Taking Guangzhou as an example,based on the implementation of the normal policy and the stage policy,we construct a survival model for participants and use the model results as a measurement indicator and the Gini coefficient as an evaluation indicator to measure equity.To obtain the data after the implementation of the long-term policy,Python is used to build a simulation system for numerical simulation experiments.A questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain the public’s perceived fairness of the policy to investigate the gap between the actual and the public’s perceived fairness.Finally,the effects of various factors on three types of perceived fairness,namely,overall,main core variables,and differences in waiting times,were investigated by constructing categorical regression models,the ordered Probit models with random parameters,and preference-based ordered multivariate Probit models,respectively.The results of the study show that the degree of horizontal actual equity of the normal policy is better than that of the stage policy.The degree of vertical actual equity of the stage policy is better than that of the normal policy in both cases,reflecting the tilt of the policy makers’ equity orientation from horizontal to vertical.The "advanced advantage" that does exist in the implementation process reduces the horizontal actual equity of the normal policy after long-term implementation but increases the composite vertical actual equity.The composite vertical actual equity is better for both policies after long-term implementation.The results of the perceived equity study show that the public is less sensitive to the "advanced advantage" than the "long time to the lottery but not win".The public’s participation characteristics have a greater impact on the degree of perceived fairness,i.e.,the longer the wait time for the lottery,the more people perceive it as unfair.And there is variability in public perceptions of lottery waiting time.Participants with 48 to 72 times to lottery have the highest sensitivity.The perceived fairness decreases fastest when the lottery waiting time increases from 12 to 24 periods,proving that the current use of 24 periods as the stage adjustment threshold is consistent with public psychology.