Empirical Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Credit Risk Of Housing Savings Loan

In recent years,With the rapid development of China’s economy,residential housing financing has become a livelihood topic closely related to people’s life.At present,in addition to the traditional commercial mortgage loan and provident fund loan,the housing savings loan model originated in Europe has been gradually popularized in China,which has become an effective supplement to the commercial mortgage loan and provident fund loan model.The three housing financing models complement each other and develop together,providing more choices and help for people’s housing financing,promoting the vigorous development of the real estate industry,but also causing more credit risk problems.Based on this,this paper takes the influencing factors of housing savings loan credit risk as the research topic,and takes CQ branch of Sino-German Bausparkasse as the case of empirical analysis for detailed analysis and discussion.This paper includes six parts,Firstly,it expounds the background and significance of the research on the influencing factors of housing savings loan credit risk,determines the research content,method and route of this paper,further defines the research objectives based on the relevant research literature at home and abroad,and also summarizes the characteristics and innovation of this research.Secondly,it expounds the development and current situation of housing savings model in China,it mainly includes the concept,origin,principle,characteristics and development process of housing savings,compares housing savings loan with commercial mortgage loan and provident fund loan,and summarizes their respective characteristics.Thirdly,it expounds the credit risk management system of housing savings bank,classifies the credit risk,and briefly introduces several commonly used credit risk evaluation models in China.Fourth,based on the business data of CQ branch in recent years,this paper makes a preliminary analysis of the sample data,selects 15 housing savings loan credit risk evaluation indicators combined with practical experience,reduces the dimension and optimizes the evaluation indicators through factor analysis,and extracts 7 public factors.Fifthly,Fisher discriminant analysis,Logistic regression analysis and K-means cluster analysis were used to test and compare the prediction accuracy of the model.Finally,based on the conclusion of empirical analysis,the policy recommendations for risk management of CQ branch’s housing savings and loan business are given from the aspects of pre-loan investigation,customer access and credit evaluation system.