Research On The Survival Of Taiwan "National Pension" In The Background Of Population Aging

The Taiwan "National Pension" Insurance was launched in 2008.However,with the deepening of the population aging in Taiwan,whether the "National Pension" can continue to run has become a key issue.Based on the research results related to population aging and pension insurance,this article statistically describes and analyzes the population aging and the current status of "national pension" insurance in Taiwan.In order to further predict the future existence of "national pension" income and expenditure,this article The "National Pension" sets up a forecast model in terms of income and expenditure,and based on population changes brought about by population aging and Taiwan’s future economic growth rate,the number of insured persons involved in the model,monthly payment rate,and monthly insurance base number,The number of people to be checked and the amount of money paid per capita are predicted,and the premium income and expenditure of Taiwan’s "National Pension" in the next 20 years are estimated based on the given prediction model,and the future existence of the "National Pension"insurance fund is studied.The following basic conclusions are drawn through researching this article:The aging of the population in Taiwan is becoming more and more serious.The natural population growth rate has begun to zero.It is expected to enter a period of negative population growth around 2025.By then,the population’s old-age dependency ratio will reach 30%,and the social pension pressure will be greater;There is a large gap in the revenue and expenditure of pension insurance.With the intensification of population aging and the slowdown of economic growth in the future,this gap will continue to expand and is expected to exceed NT$ 100 billion in 2033."If the insurance fund relies on its own operations,and without government financial subsidies,regardless of the expected annual return rate of 3%or 4%in the future,it will not be paid off in 2026,and the fund balance will turn from positive to negative.The imbalance in the income and expenditure of the "National Pension" in Taiwan will have a greater negative impact on the island’s economy and society.In the future,the two sides of the strait can further strengthen cooperation and exchanges in pensions,medical care,insurance and finance,and jointly deal with social problems caused by aging.For the mainland,it should respond to its own aging situation in a timely manner.