Estimation Of Cultural Consumption Potential Of Urban Residents In China And Analysis Of Its Influencing Factors

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China profoundly expounded the Chinese characteristics of Chinese-style modernization,pointing out that the transformation and upgrading of residents’ consumption structure is the proper meaning of Chinese-style modernization.Cultural consumption is an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of China’s residents’ consumption structure.The overall scale of cultural consumption of Chinese residents is small,the growth rate is slow,and there are problems such as regional structural imbalance and mismatch between supply and demand.In this context,this paper takes consumption potential as the main starting point to provide reference suggestions for expanding domestic demand from the perspective of stimulating cultural consumption potential.From the perspective of consumption potential,this paper focuses on the measurement and analysis of influencing factors of cultural consumption potential of urban residents in China.Firstly,the index system for measuring cultural consumption potential is established from the three levels of cultural consumption capacity,cultural consumption needs and cultural consumption environment,and the entropy value method is used to calculate the cultural consumption potential index of urban residents,and its evolution process,sub-regional characteristics and spatial distribution law are studied,and the equal weight method is used for further discussion.Secondly,based on the classical consumption function theory,per capita disposable income was selected as the core explanatory variable,and the factors affecting cultural consumption potential were explored using a two-way fixed-effect model,and a comparative analysis of subregions was carried out.Finally,the spatial econometric model is used to further investigate the spatial spillover effect of the influencing factors of residents’ cultural consumption potential.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the cultural consumption potential of urban residents has obvious characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution.From the perspective of time series,from 2002 to 2020,the cultural consumption potential of urban residents in China showed a fluctuating and declining trend as a whole.From a regional point of view,residents in the western region are affected by the consumption environment and consumption capacity,and their own cultural consumption potential is difficult to activate.From the perspective of spatial layout,the provinces with a higher gradient represented by the eastern coastal and central regions of China showed a "Sichuan" shape aggregation,and there was significant spatial dependence and agglomeration.Second,the analysis results of influencing factors show that per capita disposable income,old-age dependency ratio,children’s dependency ratio,education level,cultural supply level,and social security level positively affect the cultural consumption potential of urban residents.The consumer price index and Engel coefficient have a significant inhibitory effect on the cultural consumption potential of urban residents.The results of sub-regional comparison show that there are certain differences in the degree of influence of various factors on the cultural consumption potential of urban residents in different regions.Furthermore,based on the spatial panel data models of different spatial weight matrices,it is concluded that per capita disposable income and other factors have a significant impact on cultural consumption potential,and there are obvious spatial spillover effects.Based on the empirical research results of this paper,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,such as enhancing the people’s cultural consumption payment power,cultivating culture and cultural consumption concepts,paying attention to the consumption growth points brought about by the change of population age structure,and increasing the supply capacity of cultural consumption.