Analysis Of Marine Geo-setting Systems About The South China Sea Region And Evaluation Of Their Vulnerability

The contesting for the marine resources and the oceanic space among the coastal countries has become increasingly intense for years,with the scarcity of terrestrial limit.The sea is playing a more important role to the coastal states as a treasure trove of resources,a transport corridor and a strategic buffer zone for the country.For coastal states,a stable marine geo-setting is directly related to the future development of the country.Therefore,it is urgent to sort out the development history and current situation of the national marine geo-setting,and comprehensively analyse the problems faced by the national marine geo-setting.It will provide important support for the development of a maritime geo-strategy and the achievement of the country’s strategic maritime goals.The study attempted to reflect and analyse the marine geo-setting faced by China in the South China Sea region through a systemic analysis approach,taking the ’ocean’ as the primary perspective and establishing a marine geo-setting system(hereinafter referred to as the system)formed by different marine geo-entities in China and the South China Sea region.Firstly,the basic components of the system were explained and deconstructed according to the framework of "Geographical environment-Geo-relationship-Geo-structure".Secondly,we collected data about maritime geopolitical exchanges and interactions between countries according to political,economic,military and cultural dimensions,and established a database of ’Marine Geo-Flows’.After that,based on the flow data,the system formed by China and different countries would be quantitatively evaluated,and the status of different systems would be compared.Finally,using the basic framework of "Exposure-Sensitivity-Responsiveness",a model was constructed to calculate the degree of vulnerability of different systems under US involvement and explore their development trends.Then,we could analyse more objectively and comprehensively the marine geo-setting faced by China in the South China Sea region and formulate a targeted maritime geo-strategy.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)The South China Sea region has a highly complex marine geo-setting where conflict and cooperation coexist.China and other marine geo-entities in the South China Sea region are engaged in a fierce game over maritime delimitation,island sovereignty,maritime geo-economics,maritime geo-security,etc.With the involvement of the United States and other extra-territorial powers,a maritime geopolitical pattern has gradually emerged,dominated by the dichotomy between China and the United States,with geo-strategic competition with extra-territorial countries and the coexistence of geo-interest games with intra-territorial countries.(2)The model and quantification of the "marine geo-flow" shows that,China’s scores in the marine geo-setting system about the South China Sea show a fluctuating upward trend,with significant oscillations.Prior to 2010,maritime exchanges between countries were dominated by bilateral diplomacy and scored low;After 2010,with the development of information technology and transportation levels,maritime geopolitical and military exchanges were dominated by multilateral interactions,and maritime geo-economic and cultural exchanges gradually flourished.But later(after 2017)maritime exchanges declined due to the general situation in the South China Sea and the impact of the epidemic.At the national level,China performed well with Thailand and Singapore in terms of close maritime geopolitical exchanges in all areas,with a low degree of fluctuation in system scores;China’s maritime geo-exchanges with Malaysia,Brunei and Indonesia had a greater degree of ebb and flow and were markedly volatile.The system scores fluctuated and there were significant shortcomings in a particular subsystem due to the disputes over fisheries,sovereignty over islands and reefs,and delimitation of exclusive economic zones;Cambodia’s slow maritime development and low maritime geopolitical engagement with China,resulted in a low score for the SinoCambodian system;China’s system scores with Vietnam and the Philippines were at a low level,and the crisis nature was outstanding.Vietnam lacked communication and mutual trust with China politically,and its attitude was tough and repetitive in the face of the South China Sea issue,so the score of the system fluctuated;The Philippines had a hardline attitude and policy in the South China Sea in the early days,and maritime geopolitical exchanges between China and the Philippines were at an extremely low level for a period of time,so the system’s score dropped to the bottom.However,its maritime exchanges with China picked up in the later years of the country’s regime change.(3)As the depth of US involvement in the South China Sea region continues to rise,the vulnerability of China’s marine geo-setting system in the region showed a slow upward trend.Ongoing conflicts between claimant states and China in disputes over island sovereignty,as well as further Chinese construction and investment in the South China Sea region,had triggered sensitive reactions from South China Sea states,leading to significant and volatile vulnerability of the system in some years.During 2000 to 2010,the system’s vulnerability index grew slowly due to the low level of US involvement,low sensitivity of countries to China and good bilateral relations.In the latter period,China’s rights defense in the South China Sea,the US "return to the Asia-Pacific" and "Indo-Pacific strategy" continue to interfere deeply,which lead to a rise in the sensitivity index of the South China Sea countries towards China and a decline in bilateral relations.Therefore,there was a rise in the vulnerability of the system in volatility.At the national level,the system between China and Cambodia has been at a ’low vulnerability’level due to the limitations of maritime power.Singapore and Thailand do not have maritime disputes with China,but are allied with the United States.As a result,the system has been at a "low" or "medium" level of vulnerability for most of the period.Indonesia,Brunei and Malaysia have maritime disputes with China,but are amenable,so the system was at a ’low vulnerability’ level in the early stages.Later on,as the situation in the South China Sea heats up,the system score increases to a ’little high vulnerability’ level.The Philippines and Vietnam are more assertive,the system was mostly at a "moderately vulnerable" level in the early part of the period.As the competition between the US and China in the South China Sea intensified in the latter period,the two countries were in constant conflict with China in order to maintain their vested interests in the South China Sea,and as a result the system was at a ’little high vulnerability’ and ’high vulnerability ’ level.The thesis formulated a targeted maritime geo-strategy for China based on the characteristics between different South China Sea countries and China’s maritime geo-communication.This will improve China’s marine geo-setting in the South China Sea region and maintain the stability of the situation on the South China Sea.