Research On Economic Transformation Of Small Hydropower Based On Output Predictio

Small hydropower has been developing rapidly in recent years due to its small scale,low investment,short construction period and quick results.However,small hydropower generation is mainly affected by rainfall,and the power output fluctuates greatly,which seriously affects the development of daily power generation plans.Due to the early construction of small hydropower in China,many small hydropower plants have unreasonable design,poor economic efficiency,low power generation efficiency and limited development due to the technology at that time.This thesis combines the following studies with the dilemmas faced by small hydropower owners:For the problems of poor regularity of runoff small hydropower output,inaccurate prediction results,unreasonable generation plans and abandonment and denial of power,this thesis proposes LSTM small hydropower daily output prediction based on output characteristics.Firstly,we analyze the historical power generation data of small hydropower by comparing the whole society’s electricity load,and find the main factors and output characteristics that affect the output of small hydropower,then choose LSTM as the forecasting tool to build the forecasting model.Finally,the selected method is verified to have high accuracy and precision by arithmetic analysis.In response to the problems of unreasonable design,low power generation efficiency,poor efficiency and water abandonment caused by early construction of small hydropower,combined with the dilemma faced by small hydropower and the demand of the power system,this thesis conducts an economic study on the transformation of small hydropower on the terrace of geographical conditions into pumped storage power plants.In this thesis,we first take the reservoir capacity and available flow rate of the upper and lower reservoirs of the small hydropower step as the optimization constraints,and use the Gradient descent algorithm to iterate the available incoming water volume of the reservoir to finally arrive at the optimal incoming water volume,and consider the influence of the load-side fluctuations of the grid and the time-sharing tariff on the generation capacity of pumped storage and the step hydropower plant,and solve the system operating cost,the conventional unit operating cost,the operating cost of the small hydropower step before the transformation by Cplex.The optimal pumped storage design capacity is obtained by comparing the operating cost of the system,the operating cost of the conventional unit,and the operating cost of the small hydropower plant before retrofitting by Cplex,and the annual value of pumped storage investment.The analysis shows that the proposed retrofitting method has better economics in the power market environment and can provide a feasible retrofitting option for the future development of small hydropower in the terrace.For small hydropower with geographic conditions that are not suitable for retrofitting into pumped storage,retrofitting can only be done within the station.In this thesis,the simultaneous configuration of energy storage and P2 G devices in small hydropower stations is investigated.Firstly,the optimal capacity configuration of P2 G and energy storage equipment is obtained by solving for the maximum daily net revenue as the objective.Based on this,three retrofitting scenarios are set: no retrofit,P2 G and energy storage devices together and P2 G devices only,to compare the economic benefits and power consumption rate of small hydropower plants.The analysis shows that the proposed retrofitting scheme can not only significantly improve the economic benefits of small hydropower owners,but also promote the electric energy consumption.