| As an indispensable part of the global economy,commodity markets are inseparable from the national economy and people’s livelihood.With the deepening of the financialization,commodity prices are no longer only affected by supply and demand elements,but also by speculation,exchange rates,markets expectation,economic cycles and trade policies.Since the 21 st century,the world political and economic structure is undergoing profound adjustment,and the global economic form is becoming more and more complicated.Geopolitical events occur frequently and geopolitical risks double.Therefore,more and more scholars put geopolitical risk as an influencing factor at the analysis on the fluctuation of the international commodity prices.In previous studies,both the domestic and the global scholars usually focused on the impact of geopolitical risks on the energy products’ prices,especially on oils,or used the entire commodity price index to empirically explore the impact of geopolitical risks on international commodity prices.However,in recent years,especially after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the prices of a wider range of commodities have fluctuated,which is no longer limited to petroleum products,and the impact of different commodities is obviously different.Based on this,in order to measure the influence of geopolitical risks on international commodity prices and explore the time-varying characteristics and differences between different commodities,this paper selects all major indicators of the World Bank commodity price database,including energy commodity price,non-energy commodity price and precious metals commodity price.And choosing the global geopolitical risk index constructed by Caldara and Iacoviello to measure the geopolitical risks.All data are span from January 2000 to December 2022.With regard to the empirical method,this paper uses the TVP-SV-VAR model.Meanwhile,in order to verify whether the influence of geopolitical risk on international commodity prices is more due to the threats of geopolitical events or the occurrence of geopolitical acts,this paper also adds two sub-indicators of geopolitical risks to the regression respectively.One is geopolitical acts,the other one is geopolitical threats.The research results obtained through empirical analysis are as follows:(1)There exist differences in the impact on different kinds of commodities.(2)Geopolitical risks have different impacts on different commodities.(3)The impact of "9.11 terrorist attacks" and "Iraq war" on energy commodity prices,non-energy commodity prices and precious metal commodity prices is basically the same,but significantly different from the impact of "Russia-Ukraine conflict".(4)There exists a certain lag in the fluctuation of commodity prices caused by geopolitical acts and geopolitical threats.(5)The impact of geopolitical risks is a short-term but significant impact,which tends to weaken and disappear with the passage of time.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward following policy suggestions.First,the government should focus on the influence of geopolitical risks on the international commodity market prices.Second,the policy makers should pay more attention to the characteristics of each commodity,especially the differences between different commodities.And it is necessary to make a specific analysis of each commodity,instead of generalizing it.Third,the government should improve the ability to anticipate geopolitical risks and make emergency plans or measures in advance.Fourth,the governments should strengthen their attention to the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine,so as to accumulate experience for similar incidents in the future. |
