Decomposition Model And Application Of COVID-19 Mortality Differences

As the COVID-19 break out globally,the number of confirmed cases has been increasing,which has caused great losses to the global economy.Besides,it has also changed the order of production and life in different countries.There are large differences in case fatality rates among countries,and it is unclear to what extent the age structure,gender,detection rate and other influencing factors can explain the differences in mortality.Exploring this problem can enable the people to better understand the epidemiological characteristics and the government departments to formulate targeted prevention and control measures.Based on the data by age group and sex from China,South Korea,Italy,Germany and Spain in April 2020,this paper uses the ratio difference decomposition method to analyze the main influencing factors of mortality and mortality differences.The analysis results of the two-factor decomposition model show that the difference in case age structure is the main influencing factor in the difference in mortality between countries,and the difference in age-specific mortality is the main reason for the difference in mortality between men and women in the same country.The analysis results of the three-factor decomposition model including the age structure of the national population show that the relative risk degree of China,Italy and Spain has become the main factor affecting the mortality difference between China and South Korea over time,and the age-specific mortality difference is still the main factor affecting the mortality difference between men and women.In order to further explore the mortality difference between countries,the detection rate factor is introduced.The analysis results of four-factor and five-factor decomposition model show that the contribution rate of the difference in case age structure to the mortality difference between countries decreases,and the difference in diagnosis rate becomes the main reason affecting the mortality difference between countries.This study deeply explored the influencing factors in different age structures and gender groups by analyzing the reasons for the differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates.This will support the government identify risk factors and formulate corresponding countermeasures,in order to reduce the number of infections.