Application And Comparison Of Two ASCVD Risk Assessment Models

Objective:The’Chinese Adult Dyslipidemia Prevention Guide(2016 Revision)’and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease assessment model in the China-PAR model were used to predict the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in residents aged 40-85 years in Qingshanhu Community of Nanchang City within 10 years.The results and risk factors of the two models were analyzed and compared.Methods:In this study,a total of 1570 healthy physical examination data of permanent residents aged 40-85 years without a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in Qingshanhu Community of Nanchang City were collected,including 448 males(28.5%)and 1122 females(71.5%).The risk level of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years was evaluated by the evaluation process of’Chinese Chengcheng Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Dyslipidemia(2016 Revision)’and the China-PAR model,and the data were statistically analyzed by SPSS25.0.The effects of different age,gender,family history of stroke,family history of coronary heart disease,history of diabetes,blood lipid level,history of hypertension,blood pressure and other risk factors on the results of the two evaluation models were analyzed and compared.Results:1.Analysis of the risk of ASCVD within 10 years predicted by the evaluation model of’Chinese Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Dyslipidemia(2016 Revision)’(1)The results showed that 1026(65.35%)were low-risk,293(18.66%)were medium-risk,and 251(15.99%)were high-risk.(2)The results showed that there were 11 high-risk people(4.37%)in 252 people aged 40-44,23 high-risk people(7.17%)in 321 people aged 45-49,22 high-risk people(11.40%)in 193 people aged 50-54,38 high-risk people(19.59%)in 194people aged 55-59,43 high-risk people(21.40%)in 201 people aged 60-64,44 high-risk people(21.90%)in 201 people aged 65-69,and 38 high-risk people(32.79%)in 116 people aged 70-74.Among the 62 people aged 75-79,17(28.42%)were at high risk,and 7(23.33%)were at high risk among the 30 people aged 80-85(χ~2=279.142~a,P<0.05).(3)According to the orderly logistics analysis,it was found that gender,age,history of hypertension,smoking history risk factors will have a significant impact on the prediction results of the’China Chenglong Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Dyslipidemia(2016 Revision)’model(P<0.05),and the OR value is greater than 1(P<0.05).(4)Through multiple comparison of quantitative risk factors,it was found that:for age factors,the mean value was high risk>medium risk>low risk,and there were significant differences between medium risk and low risk,medium risk and high risk,and low risk and high risk(P<0.05).For TC,the mean value was:High risk>medium risk>low risk,and there were significant differences between medium risk and low risk,medium risk and high risk,low risk and high risk(P<0.05);For LDL-C,the mean value was high risk>medium risk>low risk,and there were significant differences between medium risk and low risk,medium risk and high risk,and low risk and high risk(P<0.05).For blood pressure,there were significant differences between medium-risk and low-risk,medium-risk and high-risk,and low-risk and high-risk(P<0.05).2.Analysis of ASCVD risk results predicted by China-PAR model within 10 years(1)The results showed that 1023(65.16%)were low-risk,376(23.95%)were medium-risk,and 171(10.89%)were high-risk.(2)The evaluation results showed that there were 252 people aged 40-44 years old,1 person(0.40%)at high risk,321 people aged 45-49 years old,2 people at high risk(0.62%),193 people aged 50-54 years old,1 person at high risk(0.52%),194people aged 55-59 years old,7 people at high risk(3.61%),201 people aged 60-64years old,14 people at high risk(6.97%),201 people aged 65-69 years old,35people at high risk(17.41%),116 people aged 70-74 years old,48 people at high risk(41.38%),and 62 people aged 75-79 years old.There were 37 high-risk people(59.68%),30 people aged 80-85,and 26 high-risk people(86.67%)(χ~2=1051.786~a,P<0.05).(3)According to the orderly logistics analysis,it was found that Age,waist circumference,gender,hypertension medication,history of hypertension,history of hypertension,history of diabetes,history of smoking,family history of stroke and systolic blood pressure had significant effects on the evaluation results of China-PAR model,with OR values greater than 1(P<0.05).(4)Through multiple comparison of quantitative risk factors,it was found that:age,mean value:high risk>medium risk>low risk,among which there were significant differences between medium risk and low risk,medium risk and high risk,and low risk and high risk(P<0.05).For SBP,mean value:High risk>medium risk>low risk,and there were significant differences between medium risk and low risk,medium risk and high risk,low risk and high risk(P<0.05).3.The results of the two models showed that Kappa=0.428(0.41-0.60),suggesting that the consistency of the two evaluation models was moderate(P<0.05).Conclusion:1.The risk of ASCVD in 40-85 years old population was higher than that of China-PAR model within 10 years by using the’Chinese Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Dyslipidemia(2016 Revision)’model,and the consistency of the two assessment results was moderate.2.Gender,age,smoking history and hypertension history risk factors have an impact on the prediction results of the two models.Male,hypertension history,age and smoking history are all important risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.3.According to the’China Cheng’s Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Dyslipidemia(2016 Revision)’model,it is predicted that 15.99%of the population aged 40-85 in Qingshanhu Community of Nanchang City will be at high risk of ASCVD within 10 years.According to the China-PAR model,it is predicted that 10.89%of the population aged 40-85 in Qingshanhu Community of Nanchang City will be at high risk of ASCVD within 10 years.