Construction And Validation Of Risk Prediction Model For Post-traumatic Stress Disorder In Breast Cancer Patients

Objective:A risk prediction model of post-traumatic stress disorder in breast cancer patients was constructed based on Meta-analysis,and an evaluation table was prepared,providing reference for medical staff to take preventive management measures in time for high-risk breast cancer patients with PTSD.Methods:Literature on risk factors of PTSD in breast cancer patients from Chinese and foreign databases was searched by computer,and Meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan 5.3.The combined effect value obtained from the Meta-analysis was substituted into the Logistic regression model to establish the risk prediction model of PTSD in breast cancer patients,and the model was transformed into a risk rating table for clinical application.Clinical data of breast cancer patients from a third class A hospital were collected by convenient sampling method as validation model data to test the effect of prediction model and rating table.Results:A total of 9 literatures were included in the Meta-analysis,with a cumulative sample size of 6635 cases.Finally,five risk factors were included in the prediction model:marital status,radiotherapy,education,mental illness history and social support,and the combined effect values were 1.29,1.39,1.73,1.95 and 2.08,respectively.Thus,the prediction model was constructed:logit(p)-α+0.255*x1+0.329*x2+0.548*x3+0.668*x4+0.732*x5.The data verified AUC and 95%CI of PTSD risk prediction model in breast cancer patients were[0.852(0.785,0.919)].A score of≥11 indicates a high risk of PTSD in breast cancer patients,while a score of<11 indicates a low risk of PTSD in breast cancer patients.Conclusion:In this study,Meta-analysis combined with Logistic regression model was used to establish a risk prediction model for PTSD in breast cancer patients,and clinical data verified that the predictive efficacy of this model was good.By assigning risk factors,a simple and convenient PTSD risk rating scale for breast cancer patients was constructed,which is conducive to clinical application.