Study On The Change Of Farmland Contract Scale And Multiple Cropping Of Large Grain Growing Households In The Middle And Lower Reaches Of The Yangtze River In The Past 10 Years

Ensuring national food security,stabilizing food production,and providing nutritious meals are crucial to the country and the livelihoods of its people.China’s rural work has always prioritized this mission.However,as China’s reform deepens and urbanization and industrialization accelerate,a significant number of young and middle-aged rural laborers have migrated to cities,resulting in an aging population of the country’s main food producers.The scarcity of rural labor and the aging of the primary grain producers have contributed to a decline in the rate of cultivated land reuse,and even abandonment of farmland.Furthermore,the trend of"non-grain production"on farmland is becoming increasingly prevalent,which presents a significant challenge to China’s food security.At present,individual small-scale households still constitute a significant portion of the primary grain-producing areas in southern China.Consequently,there is an urgent need to shift away from the decentralized mode of small-scale agriculture and address the problems of inadequate rural labor and diminished farmland efficiency.The government has promulgated several policies to encourage the transfer of rural land and the development of moderate scale operation in agriculture.These policies have produced a group of large grain growing households,who have gradually become a key body in the development and transformation of Chinese agriculture and the major contributor to China’s grain production in the new era,playing a vital role in stabilizing grain supply,improving the farmer’s income,stimulating the modernization of agriculture,promoting rural revitalization and ensuring national food security.In this study,we selected the northern regions of Jiangxi Province,including Nanchang,Jiujiang,and Shangrao,located in the typical rice-growing area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,as the study area.Using data from the registration form of large grain growing households in 2011 and 2021,we analyzed the changes in farmland contracted scale and multiple cropping for large grain growing households with a farmland contracted area of more than 50 mu.We used methods such as Theil index and spatial autocorrelation to analyze the spatial differences and characteristics of farmland contracted scale and multiple cropping among large grain growing households,and explored the influencing factors using a geographic detector model.The study showed that:（1）In the past decade,the national policy promoting the transfer of rural land and the adoption of moderate-scale agricultural operations has significantly bolstered the enthusiasm of large grain growing households.As a result,the number of such households has surged from 6,298 to 26,781,including 20,483 new households.Additionally,the scale of their contracted farmland has expanded considerably,rising from 1.382 million mu to 4.6291 million mu,while the contracted rate of farmland has grown markedly from 10.94%to 28.85%.However,the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has enticed a substantial number of young rural laborers to migrate to urban areas.As a result,the age distribution of large grain growing households has shifted from being predominantly concentrated among those aged 41～50 in 2011 to being mainly among those aged 51～60 in 2021.Moreover,the average age of these households has increased from 47.23 to 53.01,indicating an aging trend among this group of farmers.Furthermore,the average contracted land area per large grain growing household has markedly decreased from 219.43 mu to172.85 mu.This trend is attributable to the constraint of farmland resources in the research area and the rapid proliferation of large grain growing households,which has outpaced the increase in the scale of contracted farmland.（2）In the past decade,large grain growing households have increasingly focused on planting single-season rice on their contracted farmland while the proportion of double-season rice has experienced a marked decline.In 2011,the area of double-season rice cultivated by these households on their contracted farmland exceeded that of single-season rice.However,in 2021,the area of single-season rice planted by large grain-growing households surpassed that of double-season rice.This observation suggests that a considerable number of newly established large grain growing households prefer single-season rice cultivation,while some existing ones have transitioned from double-season rice to single-season rice.The multiple cropping index of contracted farmland of large grain growing households showed a downward trend,from 169.30%to 147.62%.This indicates a weakening trend in the multiple cropping practices among these households,which do not exhibit strong enthusiasm for such practices.Despite the remarkable expansion in the scale of farmland contracting by large grain growing households,their motivation for multiple cropping needs to be further enhanced.（3）There were significant spatial differences in the scale of farmland contracted and multiple cropping index of large grain growing households.The scale of farmland contracted and the multiple cropping index of contracted farmland in the plain area were significantly larger than those in the mountainous areas.The Theil index of farmland contracted scale decreased from 0.8312 to 0.6107,and the Theil index of contracted farmland multiple cropping index decreased from 0.0323 to 0.0271.The scale of farmland contracted and the multiple cropping index of contracted farmland among large grain growing households show a trend of’narrowing’.The gap between the scale of farmland contracted and the multiple cropping index of contracted farmland is generally stable in the region.However,the intra-regional gap fluctuates significantly,similar to the overall regional difference trend.The contribution of intra-regional gap is always higher than the inter-regional gap during the study period.（4）The scale of contracted farmland and the multiple cropping index of contracted farmland have shown a significant spatial positive correlation trend,and their spatial agglomeration characteristics are obvious.The’high-high’agglomeration is mainly distributed around the Poyang Lake Plain,and the’low-low’agglomeration is mainly distributed in the mountainous agricultural areas on both sides of the study area.During the study period,areas with high values for farmland contracted scale and multiple cropping index showed a diffusion trend,while areas with low values showed a decreasing trend.In terms of space,the gap between the two indicators narrowed over time.（5）Geographical detector was used to analyze the influence of different factors on the scale of farmland contracted and multiple cropping of large grain growing households.The results showed that:The primary factors affecting farmland contracted scale were total power of agricultural machinery,total output value of agriculture,rural population,and rural labor force.The five dominant factors affecting multiple cropping index were total power of agricultural machinery,rural population,total agricultural output value,per capita farmland area of farmers,and rural labor force.During the study period,the impact of population urbanization rate（X₇）and industrial non-agriculturalization rate（X₉）on farmland contracted scale and multiple cropping of large grain growing households has increased significantly.The influence of the interaction of the double-factor was significantly greater than that of the single-factor,and the results showed nonlinear enhancement and double-factor enhancement.The double-factor interaction could better explain the spatial variation of the contract scale and multiple cropping behaviors of large grain growing households.