Design Of Winter Wheat Comprehensive Meteorological Index Insurance Product

Climate change such as global warming,changes in precipitation patterns,and an increase in extreme weather events are profoundly affecting China and global food security.As a new type of agricultural insurance tool,meteorological index insurance uses objective,authoritative,and accurate meteorological data as the basis for compensation.Compared to traditional agricultural insurance,it can effectively reduce information asymmetry in the underwriting process,simplify the survey and loss determination process,and achieve efficient and rapid compensation.The input market of meteorological index insurance has promoted the construction of agricultural insurance system,but the problems exposed in practice,such as high basis risk,imbalance between supply and demand,and products unable to meet the needs of farmers,are also urgent to be solved.Aiming at the problems existing in its practical application,based on previous studies,this paper constructs a comprehensive meteorological index that reflects various meteorological risks through dimensionality reduction methods.Taking 12 cities in Henan Province as the research area,it designs winter wheat comprehensive meteorological index insurance products in Henan.This article proposes a comprehensive meteorological index model that reflects the superimposed effects of multiple meteorological factors on wheat yield.The H-P filtering method is selected to extract relative meteorological yield,and the global principal component analysis method is used to extract principal components from multiple meteorological indicators to complete dimensionality reduction.Then,a comprehensive meteorological index that can integrate multiple meteorological factors is constructed through weighting,providing a reliable basis for comprehensive meteorological index insurance.On the other hand,the paper uses Weibull distribution to fit the probability density function of the production reduction rate,reversely calculates the occurrence probability corresponding to different production reduction rate ranges,and determines the insurance rate in combination with the expected loss pricing method to complete the model construction.This article takes 12 cities in Henan Province as the research area,with winter wheat as the research object,and designs the comprehensive meteorological index insurance product for winter wheat in Henan Province.The pure premium rate for the comprehensive meteorological index insurance of winter wheat in Henan Province is1.6109%.With the addition of operating expense rate and profit margin,the operating premium rate is 2.3922%.Within Henan Province,the insurance amount per mu of wheat is 1000 yuan.Therefore,the pure premium per mu of this product is 16.109 yuan,and the operating premium is 23.922 yuan.The actual premium borne by farmers is 4.7844 yuan per mu.In the design of insurance compensation plans,2% is designed as a deductible,and meteorological disaster levels are divided based on the range of wheat yield reduction rate.When the yield reduction rate is between 0 and2%,the meteorological disaster level is Level I.After exceeding the deductible,for every 2% increase in production reduction rate,the meteorological disaster level will increase by one level.When the production reduction rate is greater than 10%,it will be set as a VI level meteorological disaster,and the comprehensive meteorological index WI trigger value for each meteorological disaster level in 12 cities will be calculated.The insurance company uses the average production reduction rate as the compensation ratio,with a compensation accuracy of 91.67%.The actual production reduction rates of the two samples with incorrect compensation are 1.99% and 1.10%,respectively,which are close to the trigger condition of 2%.Therefore,empirical research has proven that the comprehensive meteorological index insurance in Henan Province effectively portrays the disaster effects of various meteorological disasters,basically ensuring that farmers who suffer losses receive corresponding insurance compensation,providing precise protection for farmers’ wheat planting,and enhancing the practicality of insurance.It is a beneficial exploration of the comprehensive meteorological index insurance.