Research On Risk Assessment Of Irrigation Project Under PPP Mode

During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to "Fiveteenth Five-Year Plan" period,relevant departments in my country have successively issued laws and policies to encourage social capital to participate in the construction of water conservancy projects.Although my country’s economic level has been steadily improved in recent years,the financial sector is still not sufficiently funded.In addition,the project construction period is long and the project investment quota is relatively large,so that the problem of funding has become the main factor restricting the development of irrigation district projects in my country.Irrigation area projects can improve regional agricultural production conditions,improve agricultural irrigation efficiency and increase grain output while exerting the functions of water conservancy projects,which are of great significance to my country’s food security strategy and the stable development of regional economy.Therefore,it is particularly important to comprehensively and systematically identify the risk factors in the whole life cycle of the irrigation project under the PPP mode,and to construct a scientific and practical risk assessment system to deal with the risks existing in the project.By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of different risk identification methods,this paper selects the Delphi method to identify the risks of irrigation area engineering projects under the PPP mode,and classifies the risk assessment problems of PPP projects in irrigation areas into a hierarchical structure.The highest level is the target layer,the criterion layer and the factor layer.Corresponding to 8 aspects and 23 evaluation indicators respectively,and constructed corresponding evaluation criteria.Considering that it is difficult for a single evaluation method to effectively avoid the influence of subjective factors of experts,firstly,the initial weight of each evaluation index is obtained by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(F-AHP).The weight is stabilized to obtain the weight value of each risk index,and then the project risk is re-evaluated through the cloud model to achieve the effect of visualization of the evaluation level.Finally,the risk evaluation model of the irrigation area project under the PPP mode is established.Taking the XLDBA irrigation area project as an example,the constructed risk assessment model is applied to calculate the weights of the target layer,the criterion layer and the factor layer,and corresponding countermeasures are proposed for the risk factor with the largest weight value of the factor layer.The evaluation results show that the engineering example in this paper is at "lower risk",and then according to the project risk level,relevant suggestions are put forward for different risk sharing subjects.The research can provide a reference for the identification of risk factors and risk assessment of subsequent related projects.