Agricultural Virtual Water Trade And Its Impact In China Based On Multi-regional Input-output Model

At present,China is faced with a serious water shortage problem,with the per capita water resources only one quarter of the world average level.The shortage of water resources will seriously restrict the economic development of some regions.Agriculture,as a large user of water in China,is a good entry point to save water resources.Water can be saved by moving from areas where water is abundant or efficient to areas where water is scarce or inefficient.Based on the multi-regional input-output model,this paper applied the interdisciplinary theories of agricultural economics and water resources economics to calculate the virtual water trade of 30 provincial administrative regions in China in 2007 and 2012,and analyzed the relationship between agricultural virtual water trade and water resources pressure combined with water resources pressure index.The results show these outcome :(1)agricultural virtual water trade showed a stable trend in2007 and 2012,with the volume of 215.38 billion m3 and 219.37 billion m3 respectively.(2)The time difference of water resources pressure among provinces and cities is small,but the regional difference is obvious.From the perspective of inter-provincial virtual water flow,it mainly flows from the relatively backward central and western regions to the economically developed eastern regions.(3)From the perspective of water resource pressure,areas with water shortage and low water resource utilization efficiency mainly flow to areas with rich water and high water resource utilization efficiency.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions from four aspects: overall planning of agricultural virtual water trade layout,appropriate selection of crop types and locations,promotion of water-saving technologies and establishment and improvement of water resources management system.