Livestock Diversification Strategy And Its Influencing Factors Of Farmers And Herdsmen In The Tibetan Plateau Under Climate Change

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges that human society is facing today,and agricultural production is one of the sectors that suffer the most from climate change.To help farmers cope with climate change and reduce agricultural production losses,livelihood diversification strategies have been widely discussed and applied in many countries or regions in Africa and Southeast Asia.However,current research on livelihood diversification mostly focuses on the diversification of farmers’ non-agricultural livelihoods and the diversification of crop-planting in the agricultural sector,but lacks attention to the diversification of livestock production,another major production activity in the agricultural sector.In addition,existing studies on livelihood diversification mainly focus on plain and mountain areas,and few studies are carried out in plateau areas.In some areas,scholars’ studies have found that farmers’ livestock diversification strategies are not popular,and there are many factors affecting farmers’ livestock diversification strategies,but these factors are not yet clear.Therefore,it is particularly important to carry out livestock diversification research in plateau areas and explore the factors that affect farmers’ livestock diversification strategies,which will help farmers to adopt livestock diversification strategies to better cope with climate change and achieve sustainable livelihoods.The Tibetan Plateau is one of the largest animal husbandry production bases in China,but it is also the most sensitive area to climate change.Climate change has greatly impacted the animal husbandry production of farmers and herdsmen in the Tibetan Plateau.In order to help farmers and herdsmen in the Tibetan Plateau region cope with climate risks,this study selects the Yarlung Zangbo River,Nyangqu River,and Lhasa River regions(YNLR),the Yellow River-Huangshui River Valley(YHV),the Pumqu River Basin(PRB)as study areas,and analyzes the perception of climate change of local farmers and herdsmen and their livestock diversification level and structure according to the field survey data in the three regions.Then this study builds a theoretical framework based on the sustainable livelihood framework,and applies the Tobit econometric model to explore influencing factors of herdsmen’s livestock diversification strategy from five aspects: household capital,infrastructure,market factors,government measures,and climate factors.And the motivations of farmers and herdsmen to adopt livestock diversification strategy are also analyzed.The results are as follows:(1)There are differences in the perception of climate change among farmers and herdsmen in the three regions.The farmers and herdsmen in the YNLR generally perceive that the temperature increases,the precipitation decreases,the frequency of snow disasters and floods decreases,and the frequency of drought and spring and autumn frosts increases.Most farmers and herdsmen in the YHV perceive that the temperature is higher,the precipitation is lower,the frequency of snow disasters,floods and spring and autumn frosts is decreasing,and droughts are more frequent.In the PRB,local farmers and herdsmen perceive the changes of frequency of meteorological disasters are not obvious,only the temperature rises,precipitation increases,and the frequency of flood disasters have increased.Compared with the weather station data,it is found that the perception of temperature changes by farmers and herdsmen in the three regions is consistent with the weather station data,but the perception of precipitation changes is different from the weather station data,which indicates that the perception of temperature of farmers and herdsmen is stronger than precipitation.(2)Among the three regions,the livestock diversification level of farmers and herdsmen in the PRB is the highest,with an average livestock diversification level of 0.443,and the adoption rate of livestock diversification strategy is 87.70%.The YNLR is lower,where the adoption rate of livestock diversification strategy is 87.57%,and the average livestock diversification level is 0.418.The farmers and herdsmen in the YHV have the lowest level of livestock diversification,with only35.62% of the farmers and herdsmen having adopted livestock diversification strategy and the average livestock diversification level is 0.109.In terms of livestock diversification structure,sheep,goats,horses and cattle are the preferred livestock breeds for farmers and herdsmen who choose to adopt livestock diversification strategy in the three regions.The livestock diversification structure not only includes small livestock,but also includes some large livestock.This kind of livestock diversification structure is more optimized,which is helpful for farmers and herdsmen to better cope with climate change.(3)Among the factors affecting farmers and herdsmen’s livestock diversification strategy,in the YNLR,there is a significant positive correlation between farmers’ livestock diversification strategy and borrowing,distance between the residences from roads,greenhouse facilities,animal husbandry subsidies,and the perception of precipitation change,and the far distance to market towns is a factor that hinders them from adopting livestock diversification strategy.In the YHV,agricultural equipment and the proportion of animal husbandry income in the total household income are significantly positively correlated with the livestock diversification strategy of local farmers and herdsmen,while borrowing is significantly negatively correlated with farmers’ livestock diversification strategy.In the PRB,gender and age of household head,labor force number,agricultural equipment,distance from residence to roads,housing facilities,animal husbandry subsidies,and veterinary medicine services are significantly and positively related to farmers and herdsmen’s livestock diversification strategy,while borrowing,feed purchasing and the perception of precipitation significantly negatively affect their livestock diversification strategy.(4)From the perspective of farmers’ motivations for adopting livestock diversification strategy,the livestock diversification strategy adopted by farmers and herdsmen in the YNLR is opportunity-oriented,while in the PRB it tends to be risk-averse livestock diversification strategy.Opportunity-oriented livestock diversification strategy is more structurally optimized and sustainable livelihood strategy than risk-averse livestock diversification strategy.Finally,this study puts forward some policy recommendations,such as popularizing the knowledge of climate change and disaster risks,and forming an early warning and prevention mechanism;broadening loan channels to strengthen the household capital of farmers and herdsmen;enriching the forms of animal husbandry subsidies and improving animal husbandry production facilities;popularizing veterinary drug services to promote animal husbandry production;improving road facilities and promoting animal product trades.