Study On The Impact Of Agricultural Products Trade On Agricultura Non-point Source Pollution In Shandong Province

The relationship between environment and trade has always been a hot topic among scholars.How to achieve the coordinated development of trade and environment is also a topic that governments are constantly exploring.Since joining the WTO,China’s participation in the international market has increased day by day.As a large agricultural country,China’s foreign trade of agricultural products has also achieved tremendous growth along with the opening of trade,which has driven the development of China’s agricultural economy.However,with the consumption of natural resources,the problem of agricultural non-point source pollution in China needs to be solved urgently.How to realize the sustainable development of agricultural economy has become a key concern in China.As an important agricultural production province in China,Shandong Province’s foreign trade level of agricultural products has always been in the forefront of China.However,unlike the achievements of trade,the problem of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province has not been properly solved,which has become an important obstacle to the sustainable development of agricultural economy in Shandong Province.Taking Shandong Province as the research object,this thesis discusses the impact of agricultural trade on agricultural non-point source pollution,and provides theoretical and empirical support for the adjustment of agricultural trade policy and sustainable development of agriculture in Shandong Province.Firstly,sort out the relevant theoretical basis and literature of agricultural product trade and agricultural non-point source pollution,and analyze the impact mechanism and path from the theoretical level.Secondly,use the unit survey method to calculate the agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province,and summary the current situation and characteristics of agricultural product trade and agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province.It is found that the agricultural product trade in Shandong Province has the characteristics of large scale,labor-intensive agricultural products as the comparative advantage and concentrated in eastern Shandong.The agricultural non-point source pollution has the characteristics of slow decline,but the total amount is still large.Then,the empirical test of time series and panel data of Shandong Province is carried out respectively,which is divided into two parts: the first part is time series analysis.Selected data of Shandong Province from 1998 to 2020,through cointegration test,causality test,generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition method based on VAR model,it is found that there is a long-term and stable negative relationship between agricultural product trade and agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province;In the short term,the import of agricultural products will aggravate agricultural non-point source pollution;Compared with import,the impact of agricultural products export on agricultural non-point source pollution is more obvious.The second part is the analysis of prefecture level panel data.Based on the three effect theory of trade environment,the fixed effect model is used to study the total effect,decomposition effect and regional heterogeneity of the impact of agricultural products trade on agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province.The results show that the total effect of agricultural products trade in Shandong Province will reduce agricultural non-point source pollution,in which the impact of scale effect is positive and the impact of structure and technology effect is negative,There is an inverted U-shaped curve between income and agricultural non-point source pollution;There are regional differences in the impact of agricultural products trade on agricultural non-point source pollution in Shandong Province,but the total effect of most regional trade will still have a positive impact on the agricultural environment.Finally,based on the research conclusions and the actual situation of Shandong Province,this thesis puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as encouraging the trade of agricultural products,optimizing the trade structure of agricultural products,promoting the technological progress of agricultural production and enhancing the radiation effect of developed areas.