| Faced with the increasing tonnage of vessels and busier maritime transportation,the carrying capacity and service level of major waterways across the country are also affected,and the pressure on navigation is constantly increasing.Deepening the rules of vessel traffic flow in the waterway,reasonably explaining traffic phenomena and their mechanisms,is beneficial for optimizing the organization of waterway traffic,ensuring the passage efficiency and navigation safety of the waterway,and has important research significance.Based on the measured data,considering the characteristics of vessel traffic flow,this thesis establishes a cellular automaton model of channel vessel traffic flow for Laotieshan Waterway,analyzes the relationvessel between the three parameters of traffic flow,the impact of different vessel sizes and channel emergencies on the operation of vessel traffic flow.First of all,this thesis selects Laotieshan Waterway,taking the vessel traffic flow as the research object,preprocesses the measured AIS data in the channel based on various ways,and obtains the traffic flow characteristics such as vessel arrival distribution law,vessel speed distribution law,etc.through sorting and analysis.And considering cell parameter settings,safety distances,cell evolution rules,etc.,establish a vessel traffic flow simulation model based on cellular automata.Then,according to the measured data,the stability and reliability of the model are verified from the two-dimensional dynamic vessel operation state,vessel flow,density and other aspects displayed by the model: the density,speed distribution and flow verification of the channel traffic flow simulation model are good,and the average error is small.Then,according to the measured data and the cellular automaton simulation model,by adjusting the input data of the vessel flow,the basic parameter model of the vessel traffic flow in Laotieshan waterway under different navigation conditions is obtained,that is,the correlation of the three parameters of speed,flow and density to characterize the basic characteristics of the vessel traffic flow.The thesis also discusses the formation,influence scope and propagation of traffic jams,as well as the influence of vessel size distribution on the traffic flow when some segments of Laotieshan Waterway are occupied due to special reasons,and analyzes the influence of different captain distribution on the traffic flow of Laotieshan Waterway.The traffic flow model of Laotieshan Waterway based on cellular automata proposed in this thesis can effectively simulate the operation and characteristics of vessel traffic flow in Laotieshan Waterway.The simulation results have passed the qualitative and quantitative verification,and their results are consistent with the actual situation of Laotieshan Waterway traffic flow.On this basis,the traffic flow characteristics of Laotieshan Waterway under various conditions are analyzed and summarized,and the macro traffic flow laws in the waterway are revealed,It can provide a research platform for exploring the interaction relationvessel between waterway traffic elements,revealing the mechanism of traffic congestion,traffic accidents,and other traffic phenomena,and providing a theoretical basis for traffic management of waterways. |
