Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of Automobile Manufacturing Industry Based On Support Vector Machine

With the continuous development and progress of China’s economy and science and technology,the development of automobile manufacturing industry is also growing.Auto manufacturing industry has the characteristics of long industry chain,wide coverage,strong driving force and many employed people,etc.Whether it is the upstream raw material link or the downstream service link,the auto industry has shown high correlation and strong driving force,which is one of the most important industries in domestic economy and has a great role in promoting domestic economic development.However,in recent years,due to the decline in macroeconomic growth,the external market environment is changing and becoming increasingly complex,coupled with the impact of the new crown epidemic,industry production and sales are suppressed,while facing problems such as chip shortages and rising raw materials,which have brought a greater impact on the automotive manufacturing industry,exposing enterprises to greater financial risks,which,if not taken seriously,are likely to cause more serious consequences for enterprises.Therefore,for automotive manufacturing enterprises,it is especially important to carry out early warning of financial risks,improve early warning awareness,strengthen risk management,and take preventive measures,then it is necessary to build an early warning model of financial risks for automotive manufacturing enterprises.In this paper,121 listed companies in the automobile manufacturing industry are selected as the research sample,and the early warning model is constructed to predict the financial risk status of enterprises in year T with the index data in years T-2 and T-3.Firstly,the research on financial risk,financial risk early warning and early warning model at home and abroad are reviewed,and the concepts and theoretical basis of financial risk,financial risk early warning and support vector machine are explained.Secondly,the current situation and industry characteristics of the automobile manufacturing industry,as well as the characteristics and causes of financial risks of automobile manufacturing enterprises are analyzed.Then,30 indicators including financial and non-financial dimensions were initially selected,followed by normality test and significance test to obtain 20 significant indicators,and then principal component analysis was executed to group the 20 significant indicators into 7 principal component factors that can represent most of the information.The K-means clustering algorithm was used to classify the financial risk levels of the sample enterprises,and four risk levels were obtained.A support vector machine based financial risk forewarning model was constructed and evaluated in comparison with a single support vector machine model.Finally,the constructed early warning model was applied to Company A.The prediction results were compared with the actual financial situation of Company A to verify the effectiveness of the early warning model,and the prediction results were analyzed to propose corresponding preventive measures and suggestions.The following conclusions are obtained in this paper: the financial risk level of the sample enterprises is classified into four levels of financial health,financial average,mild financial risk and severe financial risk using K-means clustering algorithm;the accuracy of prediction using T-2 year index data is higher than that of T-3 year,i.e.,the early warning effect of T-2 year is better than that of T-3 year;the early warning model combining principal components and support vector machine is more accurate and has better early warning effect than the single support vector machine model has higher prediction accuracy and better early warning effect than single support vector machine model;the constructed support vector machine based early warning model for financial risk of automobile manufacturing industry is effective and has better early warning effect when applied to Company A.The model is important for the prevention of financial risk of automobile manufacturing enterprises.