Explore The Risk Spillover Effect Of Energy Market Based On GAS Model

China,being one of the world’s major energy consumers,China’s energy consumption has increased in recent years,and the country has become one of the world’s major importers of crude oil and natural gas,requires a significant quantity of energy to maintain its economic development and industrialisation.As a result,changes in the global energy market have a significant influence on the stability and long-term growth of China’s energy market.Understanding and researching the development trend and dynamic of the international energy market,as well as its impact on the domestic energy market mechanism,would aid in further optimizing and finishing.Beginning with a study of domestic and foreign energy market risks,this thesis delves into the relationship and interaction mechanism between domestic and foreign energy markets,defines the law of correlation change between different markets,quantifies the risk spillover effect between different markets.Empirical selects three international traditional energy markets and domestic energy industry index data for empirical research.Firstly,the measurement of energy market risk indicators and back testing.The results show that the international natural gas spot market has the highest risk level,and the GAS model is robust and effective in measuring the risk of the energy market.Secondly,the empirical data reveal that there is a large positive connection between the international and domestic energy markets,with the crude oil market having the highest correlation and exhibiting evident seasonal features.Finally,the risk spillover effect between Domestic and international energy markets.The findings indicate that the domestic and foreign energy markets have a two-way and positive risk spillover effect,with crude oil price fluctuations being the primary source of market risk spillover.The domestic energy market,on the other hand,adds little to the risk of the international energy market.Moreover,the dynamic aspects of domestic and foreign energy market growth against the backdrop of key world events are investigated using quantitative analysis of domestic and foreign energy market risks,dynamic correlation,and risk spillover effects.The findings indicate that the supply-demand connection,geopolitics,health emergencies,and other influences on the energy market are all beneficial.Based on this,several recommendations for further optimizing the energy market risk management system,dynamic risk monitoring mechanism,and energy market synergy are made.