Study On Risk And Countermeasures Of Traffic Accident Of The Blue Plate Truck On Expressway Based On Bayesian Network

In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s logistics industry and the increasingly convenient freight car rental service,transport enterprises and individuals have an increasing demand for the blue plate truck.The proportion of the blue plate truck in civilian trucks has been increasing year by year,reaching 68.8% by the end of 2020.With the increasing timeliness of transportation requirements,the problems of overloading of blue brand trucks on expressways,driver fatigue and distracted driving are becoming increasingly prominent,and the related death and injury accidents frequently occur.Therefore,it is of great significance to improve the highway traffic safety to conduct in-depth research on the traffic safety and influencing factors of blue brand truck.Based on the statistical analysis of traffic accidents in Zhejiang expressway network in the past five years,combined with the discussion with the high-speed traffic police in many cities,this paper studies the characteristics of traffic accidents of the blue plate truck,and concludes the causes of the frequent casualties of the blue plate truck.Based on the field speed measurement survey of S10 Wenzhou Expressway,the running characteristics of the blue plate truck on the expressway are analyzed by mathematical statistics.Based on the characteristics of traffic accidents of blue brand truck,a complex network of risk factors of traffic accidents of blue brand truck is constructed by refining risk factors of accidents.By analyzing the topology structure and robustness of the network,the core risk elements in the network are determined.Based on the core risk factors,combined with the traffic accident and operation characteristics of blue brand truck,a Bayesian network model of accident severity was constructed by combining expert modeling and machine learning,and the effectiveness of the model was verified.Through the analysis of the built model,the evidential variables that have a serious impact on the accident and the combination chain of high risk factors of the accident are determined,and the combination of risk factors that need to be controlled and resolved is put forward.Based on the results of accident risk factors complex network and severity Bayesian network analysis,the most closely related problems of highway blue plate truck traffic safety and accident prevention are summarized.Based on the principle of problem-oriented and goal-oriented,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the risk of traffic accident of the blue plate truck on expressway.