Research On Low-Carbon Robust Planning Of Confidence Gap Of Electricity And Hydrogen Energy System

Optimizing the energy structure dominated by fossil energy and developing clean energy networks have become one of the important ways for countries around the world to solve energy depletion and environmental problems.With the continuous improvement of wind power photovoltaic unit capacity,the amount of abandoned wind and light remains high,and how to improve renewable energy consumption and develop clean energy network has attracted in-depth research by scholars.The Electricity and Hydrogen Energy System(EHS)for a new form of energy carrying for a high proportion of renewable energy consumption provides new ideas for the development of new clean energy networks.The electro-hydrogen energy system is a new clean energy system with electricity and hydrogen as the core,and is an energy carrier that can achieve a high proportion of renewable energy supply.How to optimize and coordinate various equipment in the electro-hydrogen energy system and improve the utilization rate of renewable energy is the focus of attention and research,and scientific and effective system optimization planning is crucial.The main energy in the electric hydrogen energy system comes from renewable energy such as wind and solar,and the volatility and uncertainty of renewable energy output is one of the important reasons why it is limited to large-scale utilization,the current methods for dealing with this problem are mainly stochastic optimization and robust optimization,but both have many shortcomings,so this thesis will use multi-scenario confidence gap decision theory(MCGDT)to deal with the uncertainty of wind and solar output.MCGDT combines multi-scenario clustering and categorical probability intervals to overcome the problems that traditional uncertainty optimization methods are conservative and too coarse to describe uncertainty intervals.Based on the above,this thesis proposes a low-carbon robust planning model of confidence gap of electro-hydrogen energy system considering electro-hydrogen coupling and stepped carbon trading mechanism,and conducts in-depth research on it,as follows:Firstly,the structure and basic architecture of the electro-hydrogen energy system are introduced,the mutual conversion and energy storage modes of renewable energy supply and electro-hydrogen energy in the system are analyzed,and the research model of this thesis is constructed,which lays a foundation for the construction of robust planning models in subsequent chapters.Secondly,in order to guide the control of carbon emissions,a stepped carbon trading mechanism is introduced in the electro-hydrogen energy system to limit the carbon emissions of the system,and load transfer is carried out through electro-hydrogen coupled hybrid energy storage to smooth out the fluctuation of renewable energy output,thereby reducing the cost of system electricity purchase and reducing wind and light.Thirdly,in the face of the uncertainty of renewable energy output such as wind power and photovoltaics,multi-scenario confidence gap decision theory is applied to solve the robust planning scheme under uncertainty parameters,and multi-scenario confidence gap decision theory is to combine stochastic programming and robust optimization,and synthesize multi-scenario clustering analysis and classification probability interval estimation to refine the construction of uncertain sets,so as to generalize the conventional multi-scenario deterministic planning to classify scenario set uncertain interval planning.In view of the fact that the robust planning model of confidence gap of electro-hydrogen energy system proposed in this thesis is too complex and requires high solving speed and accuracy,the adaptive dynamic explosion spark number is introduced into the Loser-out Tournament Based Fireworks Algorithm(Lo TFWA)based on the elimination tournament mechanism,and an improved Lo TFWA is proposed to improve the defect of insufficient diversity of fireworks population in the late evolution of the algorithm.Avoid premature maturity in the late evolution of the algorithm,and improve the ability of the algorithm to jump out of the local optimal to achieve efficient solution of the model.Finally,four comparative scenarios of electro-hydrogen energy system are set up for simulation calculation,and the simulation results show that the low-carbon robust planning model of electro-hydrogen energy system considering the hybrid energy storage and stepped carbon trading mechanism of electro-hydrogen coupling can effectively reduce the carbon emissions in the system,smooth the fluctuation of renewable energy output,improve the absorption capacity of renewable energy,realize the balance of supply and demand between the source and load sides,and achieve the purpose of using the mutual conversion of different energy sources to achieve spatiotemporal complementarity and multi-energy complementarity of energy.This enables efficient use of energy.In addition,the feasibility and effectiveness of the planning method and model solving algorithm of this thesis to cope with the uncertainty of renewable energy output are verified through the simulation analysis of arithmetic cases,and the research contents of this thesis are sorted out and the next research directions are summarized.