Research On Debt Financing Risk Assessment Of F+EPC Project In Large-scale Urban Infrastructure

The construction of large-scale urban infrastructure projects is a key factor and an important symbol that affects and measures the urbanization process of a region.Such projects are usually funded by the local government and have certain public welfare.However,with the increasing demand for urban economic development,the scale of such projects is also growing.In addition to local budget funds,it is also necessary to raise construction funds through project financing to solve the contradiction between local financial resources and economic development needs.Project debt financing is one of the main ways to solve the problem of project funds.F + EPC model is a project contracting model that has emerged in China in recent years.It also has the functions and attributes of debt financing and is gradually applied to the construction of large urban infrastructure projects.In the practice of the project,the risk of debt financing is gradually revealed,which leads to the default of the construction unit or the contractor,which makes the project unable to be completed,and even indirectly increases the implicit debt of the government.Therefore,it is urgent to strengthen the effective management of debt financing risk of urban large infrastructure F + EPC projects.This thesis takes the debt financing risk assessment of urban large infrastructure F+ EPC project as the research object.Firstly,the concept and characteristics of debt risk management and common risk assessment methods of large-scale urban infrastructure projects and F + EPC projects are elaborated in detail,and the feasibility of the proposed risk assessment methods are analyzed.Then,the risk identification of debt financing of F + EPC project of large urban infrastructure is carried out and the initial risk list is formed.The Delphi method is used to screen the risk factors to form the final risk list,and the risk evaluation index system is established.Then,through the three analysis methods of DEMATEL,ISM,and Bayesian network,a comprehensive evaluation model of debt financing risk of F + EPC project in large urban infrastructure is constructed.Finally,the risk assessment model is applied to the ’ Z City East New Town Phase II Infrastructure Construction Project ’ for empirical analysis,and according to the risk assessment results,the corresponding risk response measures are proposed for different levels of risk factors.In this thesis,the DEMATEL method is used to analyze the influence degree of each risk index,and the influence degree,influence degree,cause degree,and center degree of the risk index are calculated.The path of risk formation is analyzed by the ISM method,and a hierarchical structure model is established.The ISM model is transformed into a Bayesian network model,and a risk evaluation model is constructed to realize the quantitative analysis and evaluation of the debt financing risk of F + EPC projects in large urban infrastructure.The combination of the three methods further enriches the theoretical research on the risk assessment method of project debt financing.At the same time,this study is conducive to improving the risk management system in the practice of urban large-scale infrastructure F + EPC projects,improving the risk management ability of project debt financing,and formulating more targeted risk response measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the project.At the same time,it provides reference for debt financing risk management of other similar projects,and provides new solutions for the management of debt financing risk of local government platform enterprises and the prevention of hidden debt risk of local government.