| This paper starts with the hierarchical demand theory,and on the basis of analyzing the connotation of rigid water demand,elastic water demand and luxury water demand,constructs the evaluation model of residents’ hierarchical living water demand,and builds the prediction model of residents’ hierarchical living water demand coupled with the CGE model.Taking Beijing as the research area,where the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is the most prominent and the competition for water use is the most intense,this paper carries out the prediction research on the hierarchical water demand of Beijing residents.Based on the detailed sample survey and historical data,this paper puts forward the prediction scheme of the hierarchical water demand of Beijing residents under different scenarios,and quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of the hierarchical water demand of Beijing residents.It is of great significance for clarifying the law of household water consumption and alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand,and provides an important basis for water supply planning and water management.The main achievements and conclusions are as follows:(1)A hierarchical water demand prediction model for Beijing residents is constructed.Based on the hierarchical water demand theory,the concept and connotation of rigid water demand,elastic water demand and luxury water demand are clarified.According to the main factors affecting residents’ domestic water use,relevant parameters were determined by issuing questionnaires,and then a hierarchical water demand evaluation model was constructed for drinking water,washing water,cleaning water,laundry water,bathing water,flushing water and cooking water.By coupling the CGE model with the hierarchical water demand evaluation model of residential life through common parameter transfer,the prediction model of hierarchical water demand of residential life is constructed,which passes the parameter sensitivity analysis and the rationality verification.(2)The water demand of residents at different levels under different scenarios in Beijing during 2021-2025 was calculated.The base scenario is set as low economic growth(5% GDP growth,no water price and water saving technology policy impact).By 2025,the rigid,elastic and luxury water requirements of Beijing residents will be 312.23 million m3,285.8 million m3 and 192.62 million m3,respectively.In the policy scenario,when the water price is increased by 100% on the baseline scenario,the rigid,flexible and luxury water requirements will be274.01 million m3,249.08 million m3 and 164.31 million m3 respectively by 2025.When the water saving scenario is set as deep water saving,the rigid,elastic and luxury water requirements of Beijing residents are 26085 million m3,244.36 million m3 and 154.24 million m3,respectively.When Beijing’s GDP grows by 8% and water price increases by 100%,the rigid,flexible and luxury water requirements of Beijing residents are 266.97 million m3,246.43 million m3 and 168.1 million m3,respectively.When Beijing’s GDP grows at 8% and the water saving scenario is deep water saving,the rigid,elastic and luxury water requirements of Beijing residents are 255.1 million m3,249.08 million m3 and 157.61 million m3 respectively.(3)The influencing factors of hierarchical water demand in Beijing are analyzed.Taking2025 as an example,the water price will be raised by 100% on the basis of the baseline scenario,while rigid water demand,flexible water and luxury water will be reduced by 12.2%,12.9%and 14.7% respectively compared with the baseline scenario.The water saving scenario was set as deep water saving,and the rigid water demand,elastic water demand and luxury water demand decreased by 16.5%,14.5% and 19.9%,respectively,compared with the baseline scenario.It can be seen that economic growth will reduce residents’ rigid water consumption behavior and promote the growth of elastic and luxury water demand.Raising water price will restrain unreasonable water consumption behavior of residents,and improving water-saving technology level can effectively restrain the growth of water demand at all levels.Therefore,water saving should be promoted by promoting water-saving technology and strengthening water-saving awareness education,and at the same time,water price should be appropriately raised to strengthen the binding force of residents’ water use behavior. |
