Optimisation And Regulation Of Virtual Water Industry Allocation And Trade Patterns In The Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin plays a pivotal role in economic development and ecological security in our country.Coupled with the increasing demand for water resource in socio-economic development.The rational allocation of water resources in the Yellow River Basin is of great significance.Therefore,this paper took nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin as the research area,based on the virtual water theory,used the interregional input-output table of 2007,2010,2012,2015 and 2017,and combined the water resources consumption of the three industries in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin.We also used the input-output model to calculate the water consumption coefficient,water consumption multiplier,virtual water consumption and virtual water trade of three river basins,nine provinces(autonomous regions)and three industries in the Yellow River Basin,and built a virtual water trade network between the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,within nine provinces(autonomous regions)and between the Yellow River Basin and other provinces in China.On this basis,the driving factors of virtual water consumption and net trade in the Yellow River Basin were calculated and analyzed respectively by using grey correlation model and IOSDA model.The grey prediction model was used to predict the trend of virtual water consumption and trade volume in the Yellow River Basin in the next 10 years.Finally,according to the industrial configuration and trade characteristics of virtual water trade in the Yellow River Basin,feasible policy suggestions and engineering suggestions were given.The main results showed that:(1)The water consumption coefficient of the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin was much higher than that of the middle reaches and the lower reaches.From2007 to 2017,the water use coefficients of the three river basins showed a downward trend,and the water resources utilization efficiency was improved,However,up to2017,the upstream,midstream and downstream direct water use factors were 2941.6billion m~3,50,753 billion m~3 and 30.76 billion m~3.The base was still too large.At the same time,The average virtual water consumption in the Yellow River basin from2007 to 2017 was 254,403 million m~3 in the upper reaches,69,884 million m~3 in the middle reaches and 231,441 million m~3 in the lower reaches.there was a significant difference in the level of virtual water consumption in the upper,middle and lower reaches.Virtual water consumption was mainly concentrated in the upper and lower reaches,and the primary,secondary industries of each basin segment were the leading industries of virtual water consumption.The main driving factors influencing the change of virtual water consumption in primary industry and secondary industry in the Yellow River Basin were respectively the effective irrigation area,the total power of agricultural machinery,the number of population and the total retail sales of consumer goods,steel output,the total output value of construction industry and the number of population.(2)In the virtual water trade among the three major basin sections within the Yellow River basin,the upstream exported a total of 22.799 billion m~3 of virtual water to the midstream and downstream from 2007-2017,and the midstream and downstream exported 18.465 billion m~3 and 17.048 billion m~3,respectively,with the upstream being the main exporting basin section.The flow characteristics of virtual water trade in the three river basin segments are different obviously.The virtual water in the upstream primary industry mainly flowed to the primary industry in the middle stream and the secondary,tertiary industries in the downstream.The middle stream primary industry virtual water mainly flowed to the upstream and downstream secondary industry.In the virtual water trade network among 9 provinces(regions)within the Yellow River Basin,many provinces with less physical water resources exported net virtual water to provinces with more water resources.In the virtual water trade between the Yellow River Basin and other regions of China from 2007 to 2017,the provinces with the closest trade with the Yellow River Basin were concentrated in the southeast coastal provinces and cities such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shanghai and Zhejiang.At the same time,the Yellow River Basin has long exported virtual water to Guizhou,Zhejiang,Yunnan or other regions where the per capita water resources were much higher than its own.However,in the Yellow River Basin,net virtual water was imported from Jiangsu,Gansu,Hebei and other provinces whose per capita water resources were smaller than their own,and the trade pattern of net virtual water input from water-poor areas to water-rich areas did not match with the national water resources distribution.(3)Scale effect and intensity effect were the main driving factors of net virtual water output in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin.The three driving factors in the upstream,midstream and downstream all have different degrees of decline,it can be concluded that the virtual water trade gradually tends to rationalize.In the next 10 years,the trade volume and consumption of virtual water in the Yellow River Basin will continue to grow,the gap between physical water and virtual water consumption in the Yellow River basin will continue to expand.Based on the above research results,this paper put forward the optimization measures of internal and external water resources utilization,optimization measures of water resources transfer structure and suggestions of water resources environmental engineering in the Yellow River Basin,so as to promote the sustainable development of water resources and social economy in the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide references for the high-quality development of resources and environment in this basin.