Research On Complexity Governance Strategy Of Megaprojects Based On Case-Based Reasoning

With the steady progress of the global modernization process,the investment in megaprojects construction in various countries continues to increase,and megaprojects in China are developing rapidly.The investment and construction of megaprojects occupy an important position in economic and social development,highlighting a country’s core competitiveness.However,as the life cycle of megaprojects becomes longer,technical difficulties increase,and social impacts become more profound,major engineering projects continue to have various negative impacts,such as delayed construction periods,cost overruns,and frequent safety accidents,which pose enormous challenges to engineering decision-making and project management,making them a typical "complex giant system".Due to the unique nature of megaprojects,the complexity of megaprojects is increasingly attracting high attention from all sectors of society.It is not only an important issue faced by the theoretical community,but also a huge challenge faced by the engineering community in the process of megaprojects practice.The practitioners and theorists agree that one of the main reasons for the failure of megaprojects management is the increasing complexity of projects and the serious underestimate of complexity.Therefore,it is an urgent issue to deeply understand the complexity of megaprojects and propose complexity management strategies.This article breaks through the traditional perspective of project management and engineering management,draws on complex system science ideas,integrates the latest theories and benchmarking practices of megaprojects management,and uses methods such as literature analysis,Nvivo 12 qualitative research,case reasoning,and empirical research to study the complexity management strategies of megaprojects.The main contents of the study are as follows:(1)Based on literature analysis and Nvivo 12 qualitative research methods,the indicator system for the complexity influencing factors of megaprojects is determined from complexity data,thereby obtaining the first and second level case feature attributes of megaprojects complexity.Then,based on the practical characteristics of megaprojects,the remaining case feature attributes are supplemented.Finally,rough set theory is used to reduce the obtained case feature attributes,eliminate redundant case feature attributes,and finally determine 6 first level case feature attributes and 29 second level case feature attributes.The characteristic attributes of first level cases are: organizational complexity,task complexity,technical complexity,environmental complexity,institutional complexity,and social complexity.(2)Based on the case-based reasoning method,construct a case-based reasoning model for the complexity governance strategy of megaprojects.Based on the complexity issues existing in megaprojects,design a case-based reasoning operation mechanism for managing the complexity of megaprojects,and construct the required case library and reasoning model for megaprojects.On the basis of the constructed megaprojects case library and case feature attribute reduction set,the nearest neighbor algorithm is used to calculate the similarity between the target case and the source case.At the same time,the entropy weight method and network analysis method are comprehensively applied to assign comprehensive weights to the feature attributes of megaprojects complexity,in order to optimize the attribute weights,and retrieve the source case that is most similar to the target case,and reuse its empirical knowledge in the solution of the target case.But if the maximum similarity between the target case and the source case is still lower than the threshold output of the case,it is necessary to modify the case strategy based on the bilinear rule learning method to obtain the complexity governance strategy for megaprojects.(3)This article selects the target case of a new megaprojects,Wuhan Chow Tai Fook Financial Center,and the source case library of megaprojects such as skyscrapers,for example analysis.The complexity governance strategy case reasoning model for megaprojects will be deduced,and the source case that is most similar to the target case will be the Changsha International Financial Center project.Compare the most similar source case with the complexity of the target project,and then identify potential complexity issues that may occur in new megaprojects in a targeted manner,in order to reuse or modify the complexity governance strategy of the source case.Summarize the complexity governance strategies that have significant reference value in the complexity dimension of megaprojects in the source case,providing reference for similar megaprojects complexity governance issues in the future.Based on the institutional context of megaprojects in China,this paper establishes an indicator system of factors affecting the complexity of megaprojects,and proposes strategies for managing the megaprojects complexity.The research results not only enrich the theoretical knowledge of megaprojects complexity,but also have important significance for the practical guidance of megaprojects.