Photovoltaic Value Evaluation Based On Improved Ohlson Model

At a time when the global environment is deteriorating and temperatures are rising,countries around the world are working together to become carbon neutral.Traditional fossil energy will be gradually phased out,with photovoltaic as the representative of the new energy industry.Against this backdrop,our photovoltaic industry has become increasingly mature.The industry entry threshold is gradually raised,the standards are becoming more and more perfect,and more and more core competitiveness.In the next few years,the competition in the photovoltaic market will be more intense,the photovoltaic industry will get great development,investors will focus on this,which will bring a huge demand for evaluation.Enterprise value assessment provides norms and opinions for the economic behaviors of the company such as listing,merger and acquisition,reorganization and financing.However,the application of traditional evaluation methods in photovoltaic industry has certain limitations.The photovoltaic industry is a technology-intensive,capital-intensive and talent-intensive industry.It is characterized by high requirements for technology,high initial investment costs,long time to develop capacity,and the impact of policies.At the same time,it also has a close relationship with the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.This thesis tries to improve the traditional Ohlson model to make a reasonable and accurate evaluation of photovoltaic enterprises,and provide reference and basis for investors.The first chapter of this thesis is the introduction part,which summarizes the literature about enterprise value,photovoltaic enterprise value evaluation and the establishment and improvement of Ohlson model.The second chapter is the current situation and method selection of PV enterprise value assessment.This part first introduces the development status and problems of the photovoltaic industry,including the difficulties in the evaluation process,and then focuses on the analysis of the components of photovoltaic enterprise value and development prospects,and through the comparison with the traditional evaluation method explains the advantages of choosing Ohlson model to evaluate the photovoltaic enterprise value.The third chapter establishes the PV enterprise value evaluation model.First of all,the basic form of Ohlson model is explained,and then the assumptions of the model are modified more in line with the actual situation.Then,the overall evaluation ideas are sorted out and the evaluation assumptions are determined.Finally,by introducing the Du Pont financial analysis system decomposition model,the income period of the model is decomposed and the price-book ratio model is introduced.The improved Ohlson residual income model is established.The fourth chapter carries on the case analysis--taking Dongfang Risen as an example,firstly introduces Dongfang Risen,then analyzes its financial situation,evaluates the enterprise value of Dongfang Risen by using the improved Ohlson model,and finally draws the applicability conclusion of the model.Finally,the fifth chapter summarizes the whole thesis,after analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the model,and make a direction of future prospects.Because of the characteristics of photovoltaic enterprises,this thesis improves the traditional Ohlson model,introduces Dupont analysis system to decompose multiple financial indicators,and solves the problem that it is difficult to predict residual income directly.At the same time,for the going-concern assumption loophole,a two-stage model is introduced to divide the infinite forecast.The price-book ratio model is introduced to improve the result.It enriched the theoretical research of Ohlson model and provided ideas for effective evaluation of photovoltaic enterprises.