Research On Debt Risk Early Warning Of Clean Energy Power Generation Enterprises

After more than ten years of development,China has built the world’s largest clean power generation system.Especially since the 13th Five-Year Plan period,a series of policies and measures have been promulgated to support the transformation of the energy structure,which has promoted the green and low-carbon development of the energy industry.In recent years,with the rapid increase in installed capacity of the clean energy power generation industry and the support of green financial policies,the debt scale of companies in the industry has also been increasing.Due to the industry’s characteristics of large investment and long return periods,the accumulated pressure of debt scale and debt risks will emerge if investment project selection and financing strategies are unreasonable,and when bad changes happen in industrial policies,fiscal and monetary policies,and market competition patterns of enterprises.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study how to identify and prevent the debt risks of clean energy power generation companies.This paper first summarizes the debt structure characteristics of the clean energy generation industry,including high financial leverage,mainly medium to long-term debt,and insufficient coverage of short-term assets to short-term debt.It analyzes the causes of debt risk in detail,mainly including economic development speed,macroeconomic policies and local economic environment,changes in industry policies and competition patterns,corporate resource acquisition capabilities,profitability and operational abilities,capital debt structure,external support,and governance mechanisms.Secondly,based on the reflection of different risk causes in specific financial and non-financial indicators,a debt risk warning indicator system with three levels,six categories,and a total of 19 specific indicators is selected and built,mainly covering debt repayment ability,cash protection,operational efficiency,profitability,business performance,and external environment.Thirdly,the weight of each level indicator is set using expert scoring and analytic hierarchy process,and it is concluded that debt repayment ability,cash protection,and business indicators are the three most significant aspects affecting debt risk for clean energy generation companies,forming the basic scoring model for debt risk assessment.At the same time,adjusted scores are designed for special risk factors that are unique to specific companies and are not suitable for quantification,combining with the results of the basic scoring model can form a complete debt risk warning system.Finally,some representative sample companies were picked out and their real data from 2019 to 2021 were input into the system,and the debt risk early warning model was verified from the sample results and its 3-year trend analysis.Besides,this paper proposes measures to prevent debt risks in the clean energy generation industry and relevant policy suggestions at both macro and micro levels.At the macro level,the government needs to focus on optimizing the industry capital layout,driving multi-level capital sources into clean energy development and operation,and promoting the improvement of capital structure and asset liquidity.At the micro level,companies need to focus on cash flow management in project selection,operational and financial strategy setting,and implement stress testing and information system construction to establish a sound debt risk management system.This paper starts from identifying and preventing debt risks of clean energy generation enterprises and builds a set of risk warning indicator system and application model that attempt to describe the debt risks qualitatively and quantitatively,and it also serves as a reference for enterprises of this industry to establish a sound debt risk prevention and resolution system and benchmarking management mechanism.