| Most of the villages and towns in China are the layout of national and provincial highways,which are frequently used by transit vehicles and residents along the line.However,with the improvement of the vehicle ownership rate of the residents along the line and the increasingly serious problem of highway streetization,the traffic accidents on the highway through villages and towns have reached nearly half of the total number of traffic accidents in China,which poses a great threat to the personal safety and property safety of the residents along the line.The highway through villages and towns is a complex system,and traffic accidents may be triggered by a single cause.It may also be caused by the interaction of multiple causative factors,how to accurately identify the key causative factors from multiple angles,find out the dangerous scenarios of the aggregation of key causative factors,and put forward suggestions for rectification and improvement,this is of great significance to improve the safety of the highway system through villages and towns.This paper collects the information of 565 traffic accidents on the highway through villages and towns in a certain area of Jilin Province from2016 to 2020,and analyzes the distribution characteristics of traffic accidents on the highway through villages and towns.the accident-causing factors are identified from the four dimensions of human,vehicle,road and environment,and the basic probability of each cause factor is calculated.In order to explore the influence degree of each cause factor on the accident,the fault tree model of the highway through the village and town is established,so that the factor is the basic event of the fault tree,and the traffic accident of the highway through the villages and towns is taken as the top event.the critical importance and probability importance of the causative factors are calculated,and the Bayesian network is established by using the height mapping relationship between the fault tree model and Bayesian network.Output the posterior probability,sensitivity and maximum possible explanation of each causal factor.The results show that the output results of fault tree and Bayesian network are highly consistent.Considering the coupling relationship among the cause factors,the NK model is used to solve the risk coupling value T of all kinds of coupling accidents formed by human,vehicle,road and environment.As a result,the SNA social network model is established as the network node,and the whole network and individual network are analyzed respectively.The results of NK model are modified by the results of SNA social network analysis,and the ability of each cause to induce potential risk coupled traffic accidents is obtained.Finally,based on the results of the above analysis,the key cause factors are found,and the treatment of hidden dangers of highway through villages and towns is focused on the accident-prone scene with a collection of key cause factors.they are intersection scene,road slippery scene and night nonlighting scene.Taking the real traffic accidents in each scene as an example,the paper uses PC-Crash to reproduce the traffic accidents,extracts the vehicle dynamic parameters and converts them into GIDAS format data,and finally imports the GIDAS data into Pre Scan to generate the vehicle accident trajectory,constructs the accident scene in which the key causative factors gather in the three-dimensional scene,and observes the performance of the causative factors in the specific accident from the micro level.And put forward the corresponding rectification and reform suggestions according to the national standards.In summary,through the establishment of subjective and objective causal factor analysis model,the paper makes a systematic analysis of the traffic accidents on highway through villages and towns from the macro and micro point of view,and provides theoretical support for improving the safety of the village highway.It has a certain reference value for improving the regional traffic environment. |
