Research On Travel Demand Analysis Of County Urban Residents Based On Multi-source Data Fusion

At present,China’s county is in the stage of rapid development,county traffic as an important support force of county economic development should be synchronized development.However,there are still some problems in many counties,such as lagging road network construction,unbalanced traffic resources,chaotic traffic operation and low public transport sharing rate.The fundamental reason for these traffic problems is that the relatively backward traffic supply development speed does not match the growing demand for traffic travel,and the existing county traffic system is difficult to meet people’s growing needs for a better life.Therefore,in the context of the new era,it is of far-reaching significance to discuss and analyze the travel needs of county residents.Firstly,taking Changxing County,Zhejiang Province as an example,this study completed the collection of county residents’ personal information,travel data,county geographic information files and county interest point data by means of questionnaire survey and Internet query.On this basis,the obtained data is cleaned and the multi-source data is fused with geographic information software.Secondly,this study conducts basic feature analysis and correlation analysis on the fused data set,and summarizes the travel characteristics of urban residents in county area.It focuses on analyzing the correlation among activity chain types,travel modes and other characteristics,so as to explore the behavior mechanism of county residents’ activity arrangement in travel decision making.Thirdly,on the basis of the existing travel demand analysis methods,this study integrates the travel based analysis method with the activity-based analysis method,and uses the basic principle,test method and analysis tool of discrete choice model to propose a travel demand analysis method of urban residents in county region integrating multi-source data.This method considers many factors that affect residents’ travel decisions and can obtain rich analysis results.Then,BIOGEME analysis tool was used to construct a prediction model of activity chain type and a joint prediction model of travel time and travel mode.The prediction model of activity chain type is to establish the final model by comparing and analyzing the prediction effect of two nested Logit models with different nesting methods,so as to get the proportion of each activity chain in residents’ travel activities.The travel time-mode joint prediction model is to establish the final model by comparing and analyzing the prediction effects of double-layer standard multinomial Logit model and cross-nested Logit model,so as to realize the travel structure prediction in different time periods.Finally,the paper summarizes and analyzes the travel demand forecasting process of urban residents in county,and introduces the specific application process of the proposed method by taking the travel demand forecasting of residents in Changxing County as an example.The results show that this method has certain operability and rationality,and can provide a new idea for the analysis of travel demand in county traffic planning.