| At present,the contradiction between global economic development and environmental protection is becoming more and more prominent,but China has been upholding the concept of harmony between human and nature and sustainable social development,and in 2020,China made a solemn commitment to "carbon peak and carbon neutral" at the United Nations General Assembly,which has boosted the development of green finance.The emergence of green finance has undoubtedly brought new opportunities for China’s economic development and ecological environment improvement,and green bonds,as a debt financing instrument of green finance,balance the relationship between economy and environment.As green bonds still have all the characteristics of general bonds,in the face of frequent substantive defaults of AAA highly rated bonds and bonds backed by state-owned central enterprises in China,although there have not been substantive defaults of green bonds in China,with the continuous promotion of the vision of carbon neutrality target,the demand for green funds from enterprises and the market is increasing drastically,and green bonds as an important green financial financing tool.Therefore,it is necessary to measure and analyze the possible credit risks of green bonds and try to propose solutions to prevent potential credit risks,so that green bonds can better contribute to the green transformation of society.NJ,a large integrated group of companies providing systematic and comprehensive development solutions and services for the energy and power,infrastructure and other industries in China and the world,as the first construction central enterprise to issue carbon neutral medium-term notes(CND),has analyzed its CND(hereinafter referred to as "21CNJGN001").The analysis of its carbon neutral bond("21CNJGN001")can provide reference insights for other issuers in the same industry and the market."21CNJGN001 is a credit bond with deferred interest payment and redemption option,and is exposed to the credit risk of general bonds,and the credit risk of bonds is often closely related to the credit risk of the company.Therefore,from the three main risks of credit risk,the risk of credit rating downgrade,the risk of credit spread and the risk of default are measured for NJ and"21CNJGN001" respectively,and the following conclusions are reached through the following analysis: First,the credit ratings issued by independent third-party rating agencies,both of which are AAA,show that the credit risk of "21CNJGN001" is not significant.First,the credit risk of NJ and "21CNJGN001" is low due to the credit rating downgrades issued by independent third-party rating agencies,both of which are AAA.Second,by calculating the spread between"21 CNJGN001" and the yield to maturity of three-year treasury bonds,we find that the credit spread has gradually narrowed over time,indicating that the risk compensation between "21CNJGN001" and three-year treasury bonds has been decreasing year by year,and the credit risk arising from the credit spread is low.The credit risk arising from the credit spread is small.Third,based on the results of the credit rating model Z-Score,it is found that the Z-value is below 1.8from 2019 to 2022,and the trend is decreasing year by year.Theoretically the company faces a great risk of bankruptcy and the credit risk faced by the company is higher.Fourth,the results of the default distance based on the credit monitoring model KMV metric find that the default distance decreases to 3.56 years in the third quarter of 2021 and then steadily increases to 13.68 years in the fourth quarter of 2022,and the trend of the default distance of NJ companies in the quarter of 2021-2022 is generally consistent with the mean default distance of the sample industry,but the default distance is generally However,the overall default distance is smaller than the average of the sample industry,indicating that the default risk faced by NJ companies is slightly higher than that of the sample industry.Based on the analysis of the credit risk faced by NJ and "21CNJGN001",the following factors are summarized as potential credit risks: First,internally,the main potential risks are unreasonable debt structure,high interest-bearing debt ratio,and period costs crowding out profits.Secondly,for external companies,the main potential risks are the influence of market policy direction,the invisible credit risk arising from the inflated tri-party rating and the unsound information disclosure regulation.Through the analysis of the potential credit risk measurement of NJ’s green bonds,the following preventive suggestions are made: the company should optimize the debt structure management system,strengthen the management of capital utilization,establish a corporate risk prevention mechanism,be alert to the changes in financial indicators and the market,and at the same time should disclose relevant information in a timely manner and enhance the awareness of social responsibility;investors should look at agency ratings objectively;the market should supervise and regulate the management of rating agencies,and improve the The market should monitor and regulate the management of rating agencies,improve the business ability of third-party assessment agencies and increase the credibility of ratings. |
