Grey Multivariate Model And Its Application In Prediction Of Water Consumption In North China

Since the implementation of the sustainable development strategy,China has made great efforts in saving water resources.However,water resources still cannot meet the regional economic development,affecting the regional economic development.Therefore,effective prediction and analysis of regional water consumption is of key significance for the sustainable development of regional economy.In regional water consumption prediction,the grey multivariate model can reduce the impact of less data on the accuracy of results.Since the traditional grey multivariate model does not satisfy the new information priority principle,and considering that changing the accumulative operator can change the nature of the model,this thesis introduces the variable accumulative operator into the grey multivariate convolution model,studies the variable accumulative grey multivariate convolution model,and provides a new theoretical method for the sustainable development of regional economy.The main contents of this thesis are as follows:First,build a variable cumulative grey multivariable model.Firstly,variable accumulation is introduced into the traditional grey multivariable model,and it is proved that the variable accumulation operator can give more weight to the new information than the original one.Secondly,variable accumulation operator is introduced into the grey multivariate convolution model,and the variable accumulation grey multivariate convolution model is constructed,and the information difference,perturbation and initial value validity of the model are verified.Finally,point and interval prediction models are built on the basis of variable cumulative grey multivariable convolution model.Second,take North China as the research object.Taking into account the availability of indicators and referring to relevant literature,this thesis selects the relevant factors that affect water consumption,such as the value-added of the primary industry,the valueadded of the secondary industry,the value-added of the tertiary industry and the population at the end of the year.Assuming the development scenarios of the value-added of the first industry,the value-added of the second industry,the value-added of the third industry and the population at the end of the year,this thesis makes point prediction and interval prediction analysis of water consumption in the five provinces of North China based on the variable cumulative grey multivariable model,and puts forward corresponding measures according to the variation of water consumption under different influencing factors.This research of this thesis will further enrich the grey multivariate model,broaden the application scope of grey multivariate,and provide theoretical basis for accurate prediction of water consumption in North China.