Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Supply Chain Finance In The Automotive Industry Of A Commercial Bank

With the rapid growth of China’s economy,the characteristics of low turnover rate and large demand of funds in the automotive industry have become increasingly prominent,but in order to control risks,commercial banks are cautious and reluctant to lend,and small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain are affected by imperfect financial data,small asset scale,lack of traditional collateral and other factors,resulting in a situation of "difficult and expensive financing",restricting their future innovation and development.Therefore,supply chain finance based on accounts receivable,prepaid accounts,inventory and supply relationships is considered to be an effective way to solve the financing dilemma of SMEs in the supply chain in the automotive industry.However,at the same time,it should be noted that the large number of participants in supply chain finance,the complex supply relationship,and the obvious on-chain risk transmission effect may lead to a surge in credit risk or even the collapse of supply chain relationships.Therefore,exploring the credit risk of supply chain finance and its evaluation model has become an important topic in industry and academia.This paper first studies the main risk points of supply chain finance based on three common supply chain finance financing models.Through the comparative analysis of traditional credit business,the correlation between various stakeholders in supply chain finance financing is deconstructed,and the characteristics of relevant credit risk chain transmission are summarized.Secondly,by comprehensively using the theory of information asymmetry,the theory of trade self-compensation and the theory of symbiosis,combined with the practical problems such as solidification of the model,weak industry pertinence,and imperfect index system in the supply chain financial credit evaluation of commercial banks,starting from their actual business needs,a credit risk evaluation index system of the automotive supply chain finance under the financing mode with the payment of goods by core enterprises as the main source of repayment is constructed,focusing on the analysis of the profitability,solvency,credit status,and other practical problems in the supply chain financial credit evaluation of commercial banks,starting from their actual business needs.Enterprise quality and supply chain cooperation quality;Then,a credit risk evaluation index system for automotive supply chain finance under the financing model with sales revenue obtained by financing enterprises as the main source of repayment was constructed,highlighting the characteristic indicators of financing enterprises,such as profitability,operating ability,development ability,enterprise quality,risk level and supply chain cooperation quality.Finally,the representative customers in the automotive industry of A commercial bank are selected as the sample data,descriptive statistics are carried out,the principal component factor is extracted by dimensionality reduction method,and the logistic regression model with high prediction robustness and low data requirements is selected by comparing the advantages and disadvantages and application scope of Credit Metrics,KMV and other models to construct a credit risk evaluation model for supply chain finance in the automotive industry of A commercial bank.The empirical results show that the evaluation accuracy of the model is higher than that of the traditional credit risk evaluation method of A commercial bank,and the effectiveness of the evaluation index system established in this paper is verified.Taking the credit risk evaluation of supply chain finance in the automotive industry as the research object,and taking the source of repayment as the classification basis,this paper constructs the credit risk evaluation index system of supply chain finance in the automotive industry by grading classification,which not only effectively solves the existing problems in the credit risk evaluation of supply chain finance of commercial banks in the automotive industry,forms a credit risk evaluation model,but also enriches the relevant theories,and can provide theoretical guidance and methods for other financial institutions to promote supply chain financial financing.