Uncertainty Analysis Method Of Radioactive Waste Disposal Site

The disposal of radioactive waste is a major issue related to national environment,public safety,nuclear industry health,and sustainable development.Safety Case is an important means to ensure the safety of disposal facilities.Uncertainty analysis in radioactive waste disposal is an important component of Safety Case.This paper evaluates the sources of uncertainty in Safety Case analysis for radioactive waste disposal and proposes a process for uncertainty analysis suitable for the actual situation in China.Based on this,a case study is designed to analyze the near-field,farfield,and dose conversion modules,and reasonable results are obtained through uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis.The Cholesky decomposition method is used to improve Latin hypercube sampling and accelerate the convergence rate of calculation results.The proposed process and model for uncertainty analysis in radioactive waste disposal are feasible and suitable.The use of the Cholesky decomposition method significantly improves the convergence rate of calculation results.These results contribute to futher improvement in Safety Case analysis for radioactive waste disposal facilities.