Study On Water Use Characteristics And Security Guarantee In Shandong Province Based On Water Footprint

The precipitation in Shandong Province varies greatly from year to year,and the total amount of water resources is unstable,and it faces the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources brought about by rapid population growth,rapid economic level improvement and rapid social development.In order to promote the sustainable development of economy and society and ensure the safety of water use in Shandong Province,this paper introduces the water footprint theory,makes a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of water use in Shandong Province,evaluates the safety of water use,and finally puts forward corresponding safeguard countermeasures.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the relevant theories of input-output method are sorted out and studied,and its model structure,equilibrium relationship and calculation method of important coefficients are clarified.The applicability and principle of input-output method in water footprint calculation are explained,and the calculation method of water footprint is given.Secondly,a large number of economic,social and hydrological data of Shandong Province are collected,and the input-output table of Shandong Province is established.For the input-output table of missing years,matrix conversion technology,component data analysis and ARIMA model are used to predict and supplement it,so as to obtain the annual input-output table from 2012 to 2020,so as to obtain the calculated data of water footprint of Shandong Province in consecutive years.The water footprint of Shandong province from2012 to 2020 is calculated by using the processed data.Finally,using the results of water footprint calculation,the water consumption characteristics of Shandong Province are analyzed from four aspects: water consumption coefficient,regional water footprint,gray water footprint and water consumption structure.At the same time,the evaluation index system is established,and the water safety in Shandong Province is evaluated from four aspects: water footprint structure,water footprint benefit,water resources ecological security and water sustainability,and is weighted by entropy weight method and then comprehensively evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.In view of the above analysis,this paper puts forward the countermeasures of water security in Shandong Province from five aspects: optimizing industrial structure,innovating water resources management mechanism,promoting virtual water strategic trade,strengthening clean water and sewage management,and improving water resources utilization efficiency.The results show that the order of water consumption coefficients of the three major industries is: primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry;The water footprint of Shandong Province shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,in which the water footprint of the primary industry first decreases and then slowly increases,the water footprint of the secondary industry has no obvious change,and the water footprint of the tertiary industry,residents’ life and ecological environment continues to increase.The gray water footprint of each department shows a downward trend;The water consumption structure is more reasonable,and the adjustment of water consumption structure is more active.Shandong province has a low self-sufficiency in water resources,and the population and land area that need to be carried by the unit water resources are under great pressure,and the water resources abandonment rate is high.Before 2020,Shandong province will be an exporter of water resources,but the economic benefit value of water footprint is high.The change of water resources in Shandong Province is unstable and the degree of development and utilization is high.In some years,it is unsustainable,and the pressure of water use is high.In2014 and 2019,the evaluation grade was Grade II,and the evaluation grade in other years was Grade I.Overall,the water safety in Shandong Province can be guaranteed,and the changing trend is optimistic,but there are still unsafe risks in some years.