The Finance Model Selection Considering Overconfidence In Capital Constrained Supply Chain

With the rapid development of e-commerce,logistics service has gradually become an important force to promote the development of the global economy.The roles of supply chain members also change accordingly.Logistics service integrators are logistics enterprises that master the advantages of information and resources,while express delivery enterprises that provide express transport services are transformed into logistics service providers,and both sides make concerted efforts to provide logistics services for customers and create service value.In this situation,the cross-shareholding of logistics service supply chain enterprises will inevitably affect the decision-making and performance level of the supply chain.At the same time,when crossshareholding behavior leads to changes in members’ profits,supply chain members will be affected by fairness concerns,will modify their decision-making objectives,and finally make the "most satisfactory" decision.In this case,it is necessary to study the decision-making optimization of logistics service supply chain considering enterprise behavior.Therefore,based on the existing order allocation mechanism,this paper studies the impact of different cross-shareholding models and fairness concerns on the decision-making and performance of logistics service supply chain.In the supply chain model composed of a single manufacturer and a single e-commerce platform,this paper mainly studies the choice of overconfident capital constraint supply chain financing model.And explore the impact of overconfidence on supply chain decision-making.By exploring the two cases of manufacturer overconfidence,platform rationality and manufacturer rationality,platform overconfidence,manufacturers can choose bank financing or platform financing to explore the impact of overconfidence on financing methods.We come to the following conclusions:When the manufacturer is overconfident and the e-commerce platform is rational,the optimal output of bank financing by the manufacturer is related to the net profit per unit product.When the profit margin of a single product reaches 100%,when the manufacturer is optimistic about the market,on the contrary,the manufacturer will reduce the output to reduce his production cost so as to obtain a high return on investment.When the profit margin is not too high,they will choose to increase their own output to get the corresponding profits.Under the platform financing,manufacturers will increase their output with the increase of their overconfidence,so as to improve their profits.When the degree of overconfidence is too high or too low,the manufacturer will choose the platform for financing,and the general degree of overconfidence will choose the bank for financing.When the manufacturer is rational and the e-commerce platform is overconfident,the degree of overconfidence is different,the choice of financing methods will be different.By comparing the influence of overconfidence of different decision makers on the supply chain under the same financing mode,it is concluded that under bank financing,when the manufacturer is overconfident when the manufacturer is overconfident,the profit of the manufacturer is greater than that of the manufacturer when the platform is overconfident,on the contrary,the profit of the manufacturer when the manufacturer is overconfident is lower than that of the manufacturer when the platform is overconfident.Under platform financing,when the parameters of platform overconfidence and manufacturer’s overconfidence are small,the optimal expected profit when the manufacturer is overconfident is higher than that when the platform is overconfident.When the overconfidence parameter is large,the optimal expected profit when the manufacturer is overconfident is lower than that when the platform is overconfident.