Prediction Of China’s Primary Energy Consumption Based On Clean Energy Development

After the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" was put forward,the Chinese government further carried out the "double control" action for the total energy consumption and energy intensity,and accelerated the energy transformation and the construction of modern energy system.China’s primary energy consumption structure has been continuously optimized,the proportion of clean energy sources has gradually increased,and the development of clean energy has attracted more and more attention.Therefore,the research on clean energy has strong practical significance.Firstly,this paper analyzes the relationship between carbon neutralization,highquality economic development and China’s primary energy consumption,introduces the development status of each primary energy,studies the impact of the development of clean energy on fossil energy,and finds that the development trend of clean energy is good,but fossil energy still needs to play a bottom-up role;Secondly,with the help of the explanatory structure model,the hierarchical structure of the influencing factors of energy consumption is sorted out,and the factors are classified and discussed;Thirdly,based on the relationship between the influencing factors,the system dynamics model of primary energy consumption is established;Finally,after determining the effectiveness of the model,this paper studies the development and changes of China’s primary energy consumption under different clean energy development plans.The set scenarios are the conventional scenario with parameters set according to the 14 th five year plan,the positive scenario with reference to the rapid development period of renewable energy in the EU and the negative scenario considering the obstruction of clean energy development,It is found that under the conventional development plan,China can achieve the goal of more than one quarter of clean energy consumption in 2030,and biomass should become the focus of development in the next stage.