Cause Analysis And Severity Prediction Of Urban Road Traffic Accidents In Cold Regions

In China,the area affected by ice and snow accounts for about half of the national land area.Road traffic in Northeast and Northwest China is more vulnerable to snow,snow and freezing.According to statistics,the number of traffic accidents in the ice and snow season is3-4 times higher than that in the normal situation.Therefore,the road traffic safety problem in the ice and snow season in China is very serious.In addition,urban traffic accidents may only cause a small number of casualties,but have a serious negative impact on the surrounding traffic,such as significantly increasing the driving delay and unnecessary fuel consumption of the third party(i.e.vehicles not involved in the accident).However,the traditional traffic accident severity evaluation method often ignores the above characteristics of urban traffic accidents,and treats the traffic accidents of highway and urban road equally.In view of the above reasons,it is of great theoretical significance to carry out the cause analysis and severity prediction of urban road traffic accidents in cold regions for the improvement of road traffic safety.Based on the data of urban road traffic accidents in Heilongjiang Province,this paper analyzes the causes and time distribution of urban road traffic accidents in ice snow season and non ice snow season.The results show that there are differences in the characteristics of urban road traffic accidents between ice snow season and non ice snow season in cold regions(Such as accident form,average casualties,etc),so different prediction models are established for the severity of accidents in ice snow season and non ice snow season.According to the characteristics of urban road traffic accidents,considering the traditional casualty loss and property loss,as well as the third-party traffic delay and unnecessary fuel consumption loss caused by the accident,a comprehensive evaluation index of the severity of urban road traffic accidents is constructed.Based on the difference characteristics of urban road traffic accidents between ice snow season and non ice snow season in cold regions,considering the third party loss,a proportional advantage model is established to analyze,solve and test the severity of the accident.The significant influencing factors of urban road traffic accidents in ice snow season and non ice snow season are comprehensively considered and screened,and the influence degree of different factors on accidents is obtained through elastic analysis.The Bayesian network model based on Genie platform is used to predict the probability distribution of traffic accident severity under the influence of different values of various factors.Based on the data of urban road traffic accidents in Heilongjiang Province,the Bayesian network prediction model of urban ice snow road traffic accidents is established.Using Genie software to solve the Bayesian network prediction model,the severity and probability of urban road traffic accidents under different conditions are obtained.At the same time,the model can be used to predict the severity of traffic accidents under specific circumstances,and formulate response countermeasures for such traffic accidents.