Final Demand Change And Energy Consumption Change In China

China is the largest energy consumer in the world.Exploring the driving factors of China’s energy consumption changes is of great practical significance for global climate governance and China’s high-quality development path.Since the internal cycle driven by domestic final demand and the external cycle driven by foreign final demand play different and important roles in China’s economy,the study of energy consumption lacks a detailed analysis of domestic and foreign final demand under the framework of global multi-regional analysis.In this paper,the global multi-regional input-Output(GMRIO)model is adopted to establish the final demand analysis framework.From the three levels of countries,demand categories and demand industries,Using four layers structure decomposition method estimates the domestic final demand changes(level of domestic demand,domestic demand category,the domestic industry)and foreign final demand changes(external countries,external demand level,external demand category,external industry)influence on China’s energy consumption,fully reveals the final demand change relation with the number of changes in China’s energy consumption,The trajectory and driving factors of China’s energy consumption demand side are explored.The results show that :(1)the change of domestic final demand is the main promoter of China’s energy consumption growth,and the change of foreign final demand also plays a significant role in promoting China’s energy consumption growth,especially the export boom from 2003 to 2007.(2)The demand level change of domestic final demand is the key factor promoting the growth of Energy consumption in China,and the industrial structure and category structure of domestic demand are relatively weak in promoting the growth of energy consumption;(3)overseas final demand level of demand and demand structure change in China’s energy consumption growth,driven by foreign industrial structure changes in final demand,in particular,the specific performance high demand for manufacturing,including Japan,the United States,Germany,South Korea,India,Russia manufacturing needs of the growth of China’s energy consumption effect is remarkable.Combined with the empirical results,the enlightenment is proposed from two perspectives :(1)under the background of the domestic cycle,promote the reform of energy consumption mode and build a green and intelligent energy system.(2)Under the background of domestic and international double circulation,optimize the international division of labor in production and comprehensively strengthen international cooperation in energy.The research results can clarify the source of China’s energy consumption growth and improve the demand side research of China’s energy consumption.At the same time,in order to adapt to changes in the development environment at home and abroad,accelerate the reform of the demand side,and formulate precise demand side energy policies to provide direction guidance.