Research On Differentiated Subsidy Of China Railway Express Based On Dynamic Game Theory

As a vital carrier for deepening economic and trade cooperation between China and countries along the Belt and Road,China Railway Express is also a significant tool for advancing the B&R Initiative.At the very beginning of its operation,government subsidies effectively cultivate the market and attract goods;but the excessive intervention of subsidies interferes with the market mechanism.And the Ministry of Finance issued a document requiring subsidies to decline year by year.In this context,based on time value theory,this thesis starts from time value,studies the differentiated subsidy strategies of different goods through game theory,and provides subsidy optimizing strategies for promoting its high-quality development.Firstly,this thesis sorts out the current subsidy information of China Railway Express,that is,subsidy by container,with the amount ranging from 2000-5000 dollars/FEU;analyzes problems raised by subsidy mechanism,including unclear positioning,lack of specificity;and comes up with the optimization ideas,which is clarifying the suitable goods and formulating differentiated subsidy strategies.Secondly,to clarify the suitable goods,this thesis classifies good category according to goods value and time sensitivity;based on the hypothesis of economic man,sorts out the influencing factors of goods time value and establishes a time value model considering capital occupation,transportation risk and goods depreciation.Taking China Railway Express(Chengdu)as an example,calculates the time value of goods considering the impact of operating frequency.On this basis,to formulate differentiated subsidy strategies,a dynamic game model is established to study the price competition between China Railway Express and maritime transportation.At the same time,the effect of transportation price and time value on transportation demand is considered,the time value factor is introduced into shipper utility,and the subsidy policy is determined with the goal of maximizing social welfare.It was solved by backward induction.According to the results of four different kind of goods numerical cases,the subsidy value of high-value and high-time-sensitive goods can be set at less than 5% of the transportation price,the subsidy value of high-value and low-time-sensitive goods can be set at 10%-15%,the subsidy value of low-value and high-time-sensitive goods can be set at 25%-30%,and the subsidy value of low-value and low-time-sensitive goods can be set at40%-45%.At the same time,increasing the operation frequency could increase the optimal pricing of train and reduce the optimal subsidy value.Finally,the subsidy optimization strategy of China Railway Express is proposed,which includes three parts,building freight category pedigree based on transportation time advantage,differentiated subsidy strategy based on time advantage,and differentiated pricing strategy based on freight category.