Research On Equilibrium Stability Of Regional Integrated Energy Market Based On Evolutionary Game

With the interconnection and coupling transformation of various forms energy such as electricity,heat and gas,the integrated energy market has gradually entered the historical stage.In the background,the types of decision-making entities participating in market transactions are becoming more and more complex and diverse.Therefore,it’s necessary to study the decision-making problems of complex economic behaviors of multi-stakeholders in the integrated energy market.However,the traditional optimization theory is usually based on single-entity decision-making,whose theoretical system can no longer solve above increasingly complex behavioral decision-making problems of multi-entities.Most classical game theory is based on the dual assumptions of complete rationality and information access,which holds that players can respond optimally to external changes in any situation.Obviously,market members can no longer meet such demanding requirements.Different from cooperative game and non-cooperative game in classical game,evolutionary game is a game theory that uses dynamic processes to study how participants adjust their behaviors in the game to adapt to situation and opponents,based on the conditions of limited rationality and information access.Therefore,aiming at the key links in the regional intergrated energy market such as supply side,retail side and demand side,based on the emerging evolutionary game theory,it is studied that the equilibrium stability and its influencing factors of the decision-making behaviors of market entities with limited rationality and information access.The specific work content is that:(1)Firstly,the basic concepts of evolutionary game theory are expounded,and the equilibrium stability of relatively simple two-group two-strategy evolutionary game is analyzed.Promotion from the two dimensions of the number of groups and the number of strategies,the equilibrium stability of N-group two-strategy evolutionary game and that of two-group Nstrategy evolutionary game are analyzed,respectively.Therefore,the multi-group multistrategy evolutionary game theory system is constructed,which lays the foundation for applying evolutionary game to the regional intergrated energy market in the following.(2)Firstly,the regional intergrated energy market structure model is established.Then,aiming at the research field of supply-side bidding in the market,the evolutionary game model of electricity supply market is established,which takes electrical generators with limited rationality and information access as the research objects.Through theoretical derivation,the ranges of its stable equilibrium state are obtained.The two mainstream methods for solving evolutionary game are introduced and improved.Solved by the iterative algorithm based on the forward Euler formula,the case analyzes the bidding behaviors and their influencing factors in the electricity supply market under the MCP mechanism.The results demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed model.(3)Aiming at the research field of retail-side competition in the regional intergrated energy market,the evolutionary game model of retail-side market is established under the integrated energy competitive agency model,which takes intergrated energy retailers with limited rationality and information access as the research object.Through theoretical derivation,the ranges of its stable equilibrium state are obtained.Solved by the iterative algorithm based on the forward Euler formula,the case analyzes the evolutionary results,evolutionary time of integrated energy retailers and their influencing factors,and compared with other game methods.The results show that evolutionary game theory has unique advantages in the analysis of market players’ behaviors.Finally,it also provides many suggestions for the policy formulation of government and the behavioral decision-making of entities in the integrated energy market.(4)Aiming at the research field of demand-side response in the regional intergrated energy market,the two-layer optimization model is established with applying evolutionary game to optimization.In the upper layer,the regional integrated energy system optimal dispatch model is established for the integrated energy system;in the lower layer,the users response model of regional integrated energy system based on evolutionary game is established for the demandside users.Adopting the electricity-heat-gas integrated energy system coupled with IEEE-33 nodes electricity system,Barry island-32 nodes heat system and Belgian-20 nodes gas system,the case analyzes the users’ response behaviors and their influencing factors in the demand-side market.The results show that the proposed two-layer optimization model achieves the expected demand response effect.