The Impact And Mitigation Measures Of Sino-US Trade Friction On China’s Export To US Container Transportation Demand

In 2018,the United States unilaterally imposed tariffs on some Chinese commodities,which provoked trade frictions between China and the United States.Due to the increased tariffs,the competitiveness of Chinese products in the US market will inevitably decrease,and the US demand for Chinese products will decrease accordingly.The emergence of this phenomenon may affect China’s export trade and the corresponding trade and transportation industry,and ultimately damage China’s export-oriented economy and hinder China’s economic development.Due to the characteristics of Sino-US trade,this phenomenon is more manifested in container transportation from China to the United States.In the above context,it is necessary to analyze the impact of China’s export to the United States after the tariff increase in the environment of trade frictions between China and the United States and the changes in China’s container transportation demand for exports to the United States,and propose to ease the adverse effects of Sino-US trade frictions on China’s foreign trade and foreign trade transportation.Specifically,first,in order to clarify the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s exports to the United States,a method for measuring geographic distance,economic distance,cultural distance,and political distance is proposed.The spatial distance between the capitals of the two countries is regarded as the geographic distance,and the difference in the degree of trade freedom between the two countries is regarded as the economic distance,and the cultural distance is calculated using Hofstede’s six-dimensional theory.Relations between countries are classified according to the classification method in the "Tsinghua University International Relations Database".Investigate people’s views on the relationship between the two countries,and quantify the statistics in the questionnaire to obtain political distance data.At the same time,a formula for calculating trade distance between countries is constructed based on the distance of these four dimensions.Second,take the GDP of the sample trading partner countries,the international logistics performance index,and the trade distance between the two countries as independent variables,establish an extended trade gravity model,and use the data of China and20 sample trading partner countries including the United States to perform the model.After calibration,a practical trade gravity model for measuring the trade volume between the two countries is obtained.Then,using 2017 as the base year(due to the large exchange rate fluctuations in 2019 and the epidemic in 2020),assuming whether there is a Sino-US trade friction,respectively calculate the trade volume of China’s exports to the United States,and compare the two Analyze the impact of China’s exports to the United States under the Sino-US trade friction.Next,in order to clarify the impact of China’s export of containers to the US due to SinoUS trade friction,based on the 2009-2017 China’s export to the US trade data and export container volume data,this paper establish four models between trade volume and container volume.They are a linear regression model,BP neural network analysis model,gray theory analysis model,and the combination of three methods through arithmetic average method,prediction error square sum reciprocal method,mean square error reciprocal method,simple weighted average method and MAPE weight coefficient method To get another 5 conversion analysis models,then measure the accuracy of the 8 methods separately,select the method with the highest accuracy to convert the trade volume into container volume.After that,base on the distribution of China’s existing urban agglomerations,China is divided into 19 foreign trade zones,and the regional differences in the impact of trade frictions on China’s export to the United States were analyzed.Finally,in order to propose countermeasures to eliminate the negative effects of Sino-US trade friction,by calculating the changes in China’s export container volume to 19 sample trading partner countries other than the United States,it is found that despite the occurrence of Sino-US trade frictions,China’s exports of countries along the “Belt and Road” are still on the rise.Then,analyze the possibility of the “Belt and Road” initiative to alleviate the negative impact of trade frictions.At the same time,four suggestions for alleviating the negative impact of trade frictions are put forward.