| With the rapid economic development,high-intensity and extensive land development has caused great waste of land resources in metropolitan areas.The territorial space planning in the new era requires the scientific layout of production,living and ecological space,and the development and construction of a modern metropolitan area.As an important part of the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region,the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area should study the temporal and spatial characteristics of the evolution of its construction land,and explore the effective expansion scenarios of the metropolitan area,which will help to further enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area and create high-quality growth.poles and power sources,and continue to steadily advance the process of new urbanization.This paper takes the construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area as the research object,and the research content mainly includes three aspects: the evolution characteristics of construction land,the driving mechanism of construction land,the scenario simulation and control of construction land.(1)The evolution characteristics of construction land use the expansion rate index of construction land,the expansion intensity index of construction land,the standard deviation ellipse,the equal sector method,the Moran index,and the hot spot analysis method to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and patterns of the expansion of construction land;(2)Construction land driving mechanism adopts The PCA-STIRPAT model and the geo-detector model explore the temporal and spatial evolution drivers of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area,respectively.(3)Scenario simulation and management of construction land Use the Markov chain and FLUS model to simulate four scenarios of land use change in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area in 2030,and delineate the boundaries of urban development.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Evolution characteristics of construction land: From 1990 to 2020,the expansion of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area changed from slow expansion to rapid expansion and then to slow expansion.The newly added construction land is affected by the integrated construction of Chang-Zhu-Tan region,and has a tendency to expand to the three cities.Trends in agglomeration at intersections.The analysis results of Moran index show that the expansion of construction land shows an agglomeration trend.The area of hot spots in Changsha has gradually expanded.Zhuzhou has been transformed from a hot spot to a cold spot,and the hot spot in Xiangtan has been transferred from Yuhu District and Yuetang District to Xiangtan County.(2)Construction land driving mechanism: Using PCA-STIRPAT to analyze the driving factors of time evolution,it is found that the expansion of construction land in the three cities is mainly affected by three factors: economic progress,transportation development,and per capita social welfare;using geographic detectors to analyze the driving factors of spatial evolution It is found that the expansion of construction land in the three cities is mainly driven by three factors: economic development,population agglomeration and transportation.(3)Scenario simulation and control of construction land: The natural development scenarios of land use,cultivated land protection scenarios,ecological protection scenarios and comprehensive development scenarios in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area in 2030 simulated by the FLUS model show that under the comprehensive development scenario,the Control the expansion of construction land,and maintain the existing pattern of cultivated land and ecological land.Delineating the urban development boundary according to this scenario can better ensure the development balance of various types of land,and provide a reference for the national land space planning of the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area. |
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