A Study On Social Stability Risk Assessment Of Water Conservancy Project

Water conservancy engineering is the basic industry of national economy.Since the reform and opening up,the construction of water conservancy projects has entered a period of rapid development,which has a significant impact on the social stability of the region.Both the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Water Resources have made social stability risk analysis and assessment a prerequisite for the approval of water conservancy projects.Therefore,it is of far-reaching significance for economic and social development to use scientific means to assess whether the development of water conservancy projects will adversely affect local society and to make recommendations to prevent and mitigate social stability risks.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Related theoretical analysis.A theoretical analysis of the concepts and assessment methods related to social stability risks of water conservancy projects was carried out,and the evolution mechanism of social stability risks of water conservancy projects was studied based on social combustion theory.(2)Assessment index system study.Through multi-case analysis method and flow chart method,the initial risk list of water conservancy project was summarized.Based on social combustion theory and expert scoring method,a social stability risk assessment index system for water conservancy projects containing three risk factors such as combustion substances,combustion aids and ignition temperature was established.(3)Research on assessment models.In view of the uncertainty of risk factors in water conservancy projects,an assessment model based on the theory of uncertainty measurement was constructed.The risk level is determined by the hierarchical analysis method combined with the improved grey correlation method,and the confidence identification criterion determines the risk level.(4)An example study of an assessment model.A case study of a water conservancy project in Hunan Province concluded that the project was in a low risk state,and combined with social combustion theory to propose the prevention and mitigation of social stability risks in water conservancy projects by controlling combustion substances,positively directing accelerants and avoiding reaching ignition temperatures.The results of the case study show that the social stability risk assessment index system and assessment model proposed in this paper are reasonable and applicable,with a view to providing some guidance and reference for the future practice of social stability risk assessment of water conservancy projects.