Research On Electric Vehicle Charging Demand Forecasting And Battery Optimization Scheduling In Electric Vehicle Charging And Swapping Station

Vehicle exhaust is an essential reason of air pollution.Electric vehicles（EVs）,based on their clean and efficient characteristics,can effectively reduce people’s dependence on fossil fuels,meet the demand for future energy,and show unparalleled advantages in reducing vehicle exhaust emissions.People’s focused attention to environmental topics and the change of the world’s energy industry structure have promoted the rapid development and wide application of electric vehicles.In recent years,the proposal of the battery swapping mode has effectively made up for the long charging time and inconvenient charging of electric vehicles in the battery charging mode.However,China is still in the early stage of the development of the electric vehicle industry.Therefore,in the battery swapping mode,it is of great significance to reasonably predict the charging demand power of the electric vehicle charging and swapping station and optimize the charging and transportation process of the battery between the charging station and the swapping station.In terms of charging demand prediction,firstly,the charging mode and swapping mode of electric vehicle battery are explained and introduced,and the basic ideas and influencing factors of the future development process of electric vehicle charging and swapping stations are analyzed.Then,the calculation steps of the total EV charging demand power are introduced,and the Bass model is used to predict the EV ownership in China in the next five years,and then the total EV charging demand power in China in the next five years is modeled and calculated by combining the driving and charging habits of EV users and other factors.Finally,the above calculation results are integrated and analyzed to obtain management insights and suggestions for EV charging and swapping station operators in terms of charging demand power prediction.In terms of battery optimization scheduling,first,the composition structure and operation mode and subjects of the battery swapping and charging system（BSCS）for electric vehicles are introduced.The different states of the centralized recharging process and the transportation process are related constraints,and a joint optimization model of the centralized recharging and transportation scheduling of electric vehicle batteries is established.Then,the parameters involved in the model are reasonably assigned,and LINGO is used to solve the model,and the numerical results of the model are obtained to check the efficacy of the model.Sensitivity analysis is carried out for the parameter power demand D and the initial battery storage ratioin the battery swapping station（BSS）,and its influence on the charging strategy is explored to increase the robustness of the model.Finally,the results of the above analysis are synthesized to obtain managerial insights and suggestions for EV charging and swapping station operators in terms of optimal battery scheduling.