Research On High-Speed Rail Express Demand Forecast And Cargo Flow Distribution Optimization

In recent years,with the vigorous development of the new retail industry,postal express delivery industry in China has maintained a rapid development trend based on a relatively large business scale,and has become an important carrier of national economic growth.In order to effectively deal with the the contradiction between problems such as rising transportation costs and environmental pollution caused by the increasing of express delivery volume and the realization of the national strategic goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality",building a green and efficient way of express freight transportation has become the direction of express transportation development.Therefore,high-speed rail express,as a low-carbon,fast,punctual and efficient express transportation mode,has ushered in new development opportunities.This paper takes the high-speed rail express freight transportation(referred to as high-speed rail express)as the research object,and studies the supply and demand matching between the future high-speed rail express freight flow and the high-speed rail express network transportation capacity.On the one hand,considering the fluctuation of demand in the express delivery market,the attractive relationship between ODs and the competition among various express transportation methods,high-speed rail express freight flow between ODs is predicted.On the other hand,a cargo flow distribution model is constructed in the high-speed rail express network to make decisions on the transport route and transport organization mode of the cargo flow between ODs,and finally provide the operator with transport organization mode suggestions according to the matching relationship between supply and demand.The main research work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,this paper analyzes the application scope,transportation capacity,transportation cost,supporting facilities and other characteristics of various existing high-speed rail express organization modes,and determine the application strategy of high-speed rail express organization modes with transportation demand as the main decision-making basis.Secondly,the prediction method of high-speed rail express freight flow between ODs is proposed,which is divided into three stages.First,considering the monthly fluctuation of the express transportation market demand,a time series model is used to forecast the express delivery business volume in the future.Second,the principal component analysis method is used to evaluate the comprehensive influence of urban express delivery business,build a gravity model,and predict the volume of express delivery between ODs combined with the express delivery business volume of the sending city.Lastly,build a model of the freight flow sharing rate of express transportation,use multiple Logit models to predict the freight flow sharing rate of high-speed rail express under the competition of multiple transportation modes.Combined with the volume of express delivery OD,the prediction results of high-speed rail express freight flow are obtained.Thirdly,this paper designs a decision-making method for high-speed rail express cargo flow distribution and transportation organization mode.First,build a high-speed rail express network and measure the network’s transportation capacity and cost.Secondly,build a cargo flow distribution model and solve it,to distribute the high-speed rail express cargo flow between ODs to the network,and take cost minimization as the optimization goal to make decisions on the transportation route and transportation organization mode of each flow between ODs.Finally,the results of the model are analyzed,and the decision-making scheme of the transportation organization mode of each high-speed rail express channel in the network is obtained.Fourthly,this paper selects express business center cities of China,build a high-speed rail express core network,predict and allocate the high-speed rail express volume between cities to obtain a decision-making plan for the application of the transportation organization mode,and verify the feasibility of the high-speed rail express demand forecasting and cargo flow distribution method.