| As the cosmepolitical economy has developed rapidly,the demand for energy has increased sharply,and a series of environmental pollution and energy security problems have been caused.The advantages of low carbon environmental protection and economic intelligence of electric vehicles have attracted widespread attention in the automotive industry.The large-scale application of electric vehicles has effectively reduced the carbon emissions of the automotive industry and reduced its dependence on fossil fuels.At present,China is vigorously promoting the construction of electric vehicles and its charging facilities.By the end of 2020,the number of pure electric vehicles exceeded4 million,with 874,000 private charging piles and 798,000 public charging piles,which ranking first in the world.Reasonable layout and construction of charging facilities is an important factor affecting the development of electric vehicle industry.However,at present,the utilization rate of charging facilities is low because of the unreasonable location of charging stations and the service mode to be improved.At the same time,the inconvenient charging facilities affect user satisfaction,thus restricting the promotion and development of electric vehicles.Therefore,it is of great significance to promote the development of the electric vehicle industry to study the spatial and temporal distribution of electric vehicle travel and guide the reasonable location and volume of charging facilities based on predicting the ownership of electric vehicle.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Considering the factors affecting the growth of evs,including the influence of policy media,the degree of technological update and the price cost,the innovation coefficient,imitation coefficient and price coefficient in BASS model are determined.Considering the natural growth of private cars and the market penetration rate of electric vehicles,a forecast model of electric vehicle ownership is established.According to the historical data of private vehicle in the given city,the development scale of electric vehicles in different scenarios is predicted to lay a foundation for the following work.(2)Based on the NHTS data set,the travel behavior of electric vehicles was analyzed,and the travel temporal and spatial characteristics distribution model was established.The influence of SOC on battery cycle life was analyzed and a charging decision-making mechanism based on SOC was established.Monte Carlo algorithm was used to simulate the one-day travel spatial and temporal distribution and charging behavior of EV users,and the charging demand data of EV based on travel spatial and temporal characteristics were obtained,and the results were used as the basic data of subsequent charging station planning.(3)Research charging station layout four principles,to build the economy principle as construction goal fully consider charging station operators investment cost and user cost of electric vehicle and building charging stations optimization model of the lowest cost of the whole society,charging model constraint conditions fully considered convenience,construction feasibility,the principle of power grid security.The service scope of charging stations is divided by Voronoi thought.And the optimal charging station location and volume determination scheme was solved by differential evolution particle swarm optimization algorithm.Finally,the feasibility and economy of the optimization model and algorithm are verified by an example analysis,which has guiding significance for urban charging facility planning.The analysis results show that the optimization model and algorithm of charging station location and constant volume derived from the travel demand of electric vehicles proposed in this paper can effectively improve the utilization rate of charging piles,reduce the investment cost of charging station operators and user costs,improve user satisfaction,thus promoting the production and marketing of electric vehicles and promoting the healthy development of the electric vehicle industry. |
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