Research On Reliability Of Road-Electricity Coupled Distribution Network Based On Electric Vehicle Load Forecasting And Demand Response

The contradiction between the increasingly significant fossil energy crisis and the increasing travel demand has stimulated the accelerated development of the electric vehicle market.It is of great significance to pay attention to the untapped potential of electric vehicles in the power industry and explore their multiple application values in the power industry.Firstly,this paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of electric vehicle load,and then on this basis,further studies the automatic demand response strategy of electric vehicle considering the benefits of both supply and demand and carbon trading mechanism.Finally,based on the above work,considering the demand response and road electricity coupling characteristics,the reliability of distribution network with electric vehicle and distributed power generation is evaluated.A spatiotemporal load forecasting method of road electric coupling electric vehicle based on data analysis and model driven is proposed.Firstly,the road network model including traffic network topology and optimal path is constructed.Then,the data of didi travel and Baidu map platform are integrated,the travel law of regional users hidden in the data is analyzed,and the user model is formed by combining the charging demand model.The temporal and spatial distribution of load is obtained by combining the two.Finally,taking an urban road network and the actual area of Haikou as an example,the load characteristics under different typical days,different functional areas and different charging modes are analyzed.It is verified that the prediction method proposed in this paper not only considers the coupling of the two networks,but also can better simulate the travel demand.The automatic demand response strategy of electric vehicle is proposed.In order to stabilize the net load fluctuation,the power supply side dispatching model is established,the profits of charging aggregators participating in the carbon trading market are analyzed,the expected charging load is formulated with the lowest power purchase cost,the charging price demand transfer model is constructed,the actual charging load guided by the TOU price level is analyzed,and the optimal TOU price of price demand response is solved with the goal of minimizing the variance between the expected charging load and the actual charging load.Combined with the benefits brought by price type and incentive type demand response mechanism to users,the logistic function is introduced to describe the uncertainty of user participation,the demand side response model is constructed,and the automatic demand response strategy is formulated.The simulation results show that the proposed strategy can better take into account the interests of the aggregator,the user and the power grid of the charging station,realize the win-win of different stakeholders,absorb new energy locally and stabilize the load fluctuation.The influence of demand response and electric vehicle circuit electric coupling characteristics on the reliability of distribution network is studied.Firstly,the basic reliability evaluation method based on forward and reverse transmission reliability parameters is introduced.Then,a heuristic reduction strategy is proposed to evaluate the reliability of distribution network connected by electric vehicles.Through the simulation of the improved IEEE-RBTS Bus6 test system,the results show that the demand response can optimize the reliability index,and the circuit electric coupling characteristics have a certain impact on the reliability index.