Study On The Impact Of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation On China’s Energy Market

Crude oil is an important strategic energy,which has the dual attributes of general commodities and financial commodities.Its price fluctuation will have different degrees of risk transmission to the financial markets of various countries,especially for the stock market as a "barometer of the national economy".With the integration of global financial market,the price fluctuation of China’s stock market is more and more sensitive to the fluctuation of international crude oil futures price.The fluctuation of international crude oil futures price has a more significant impact on China’s stock market,especially in the energy sector.As a major energy consumer,China attaches great importance to energy security and has incorporated the energy security strategy into China’s national security strategy.It can be seen that the sharp fluctuation of international crude oil price will endanger China’s energy security,which is related to the long-term stability of the country.Therefore,it is necessary to always pay attention to the changes of the international crude oil market and study the impact of the fluctuation of international crude oil futures price on China’s energy stock market,so as to take effective measures in time when the international crude oil price fluctuates,maintain China’s energy security,and then ensure China’s social economy Political stability and national security.In order to better study the linkage between the price fluctuation of international crude oil futures and China’s energy stock price,this paper uses the copula Covar function model,takes the international crude oil futures market,China’s traditional energy stock market and new energy stock market as the research objects,and selects WTI international crude oil futures,Shanghai Energy Index(SH),Shanghai crude oil futures(SC),China Securities coal index(coal)with good liquidity and high price transparency China Securities new energy index(NEI)is the research index.Firstly,it introduces the pricing mechanism of international crude oil futures,the characteristics of price fluctuation and the external dependence of China’s energy market,and analyzes the risk transmission mechanism between the price fluctuation of international crude oil futures and the stock price of China’s energy market;Secondly,the dependence between international crude oil futures price and China’s energy sector stock price is analyzed statically and dynamically by using copula function model;Finally,the standardized Cova R function model is used to describe the Risk Spillover Effect between the fluctuation of international crude oil futures price and China’s traditional energy stock price and new energy stock price,so as to comprehensively evaluate the Risk Spillover Effect of international crude oil futures price fluctuation on China’s energy stock price.It is found that:(1)there is a structural mutation in the international crude oil futures price,there is a correlation between the international crude oil futures price and China’s energy stock price,and the fluctuation of the international crude oil futures price will have a certain risk spillover effect on China’s energy stock price;(2)In terms of spillover intensity,there are some differences in the Risk Spillover intensity of international crude oil futures price fluctuation for China’s traditional energy market stock price and new energy market stock price,that is,the Risk Spillover intensity of international crude oil futures price fluctuation for China’s traditional energy market stock price is greater,while the Risk Spillover intensity for new energy market stock price is smaller;(3)In the spillover direction,there is a two-way asymmetry,that is,the Risk Spillover intensity of international crude oil futures price fluctuation on China’s energy stock price is greater,while the impact of China’s energy market stock price fluctuation on international crude oil futures price is relatively small.Moreover,the Risk Spillover between the international crude oil futures price and the stock price of China’s traditional energy market is two-way,while the Risk Spillover with the stock price of China’s new energy market is basically one-way,that is,the fluctuation of the international crude oil futures price will indirectly affect China’s new energy stock price,while the international crude oil futures price will not be affected by the change of China’s new energy stock price.In view of this,in order to reduce the impact of international crude oil futures price fluctuation on China’s energy stock price and ensure China’s energy security,this paper puts forward policy suggestions such as strengthening China’s energy strategic reserve,accelerating the construction and improvement of China’s crude oil futures market,improving China’s energy pricing power,establishing risk early warning and prevention mechanism,deeply integrating energy market and financial market,flexibly adjusting investment strategies and avoiding market risks.