Simulation Study On Shipping Capacity Of Y Port LNG Terminal Construction Project

The demand for natural gas in northern China will grow steadily for a long time due to the continuous promotion of the concept of green development,and imported natural gas by sea will play a more prominent role in the gas supply system.Y port basically meets the requirements of establishing LNG terminal in terms of economy,environmental adaptability and policy implementation guarantee,and the expected requirements for LNG unloading capacity of Y port have been put forward in the corresponding port planning,but there is still a lack of relevant research on the technical feasibility of Y port.The feasibility study in project management plays an important role and significance.Therefore,this thesis selects one of the important indicators to measure the technical feasibility-ship navigation capacity as the research object,and conducts simulation research on ship navigation capacity of Y port LNG terminal construction project.The wharf construction project is a complex system engineering,which needs to consider the influence of many factors,and the feasibility of its construction needs to be considered before the project is approved.As a dangerous ship,LNG ship has special requirements for channel conditions and traffic organization.Considering the navigation needs of other types of ships in Y port and its public channel,LNG ship entering and leaving the port will have a certain impact on the navigation of other ships in the port area.In order to explore its impact on the navigation capacity of other ships,this thesis evaluates the navigation capacity of ships in the port area by means of simulation modeling.Provide reference for LNG terminal construction project decision-making.The research content mainly includes the following aspects :(1)Based on the research of LNG terminal,ship navigation capacity and computer simulation in domestic and foreign literature,combined with the environmental factors of Y port and the characteristics of LNG ships entering and leaving the port,the ship throughput and ship number prediction of Y port in the near future and medium-long term are carried out.(2)Analyze the complexity and diversity of the influencing factors of the ship ’s navigation capacity.Based on the system simulation theory,the ship ’s arrival type,the time interval of the ship ’s arrival,the working time in the port,the tide,the day and night,and the unworkable time under the traffic control are selected as the random factors affecting the ship’s navigation capacity.The ’ agent + discrete event + process ’ method is selected to establish the simulation model of the ship ’s entry and exit operations according to the system simulation steps.(3)By simulating the whole process of navigation and operation of ships entering and leaving the port,the impact of LNG ships entering and leaving the port is objectively evaluated from the two indicators of the delay time and the delay impact rate of the annual navigation to the port,and the feasibility of the wharf construction project under different LNG ship loading and unloading quantities in the near and medium-term and long-term is analyzed.