Study On The Patterns Of Carbon Sink Based On Land Use In Wuhan Under The Background Of Carbon Neutrality(2000-2035)

In order to actively respond to climate change,China has put forward the strategic goals of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutral,which can be achieved from two aspects:carbon emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement,but the specific realization paths need to be explored.Urban carbon sinks play a key role in carbon balance,but the existing results are mostly focused on historical and current assessments,which are difficult to guide the improvement of urban carbon sinks in the context of carbon neutrality.Land use is closely related to carbon sink efficiency,and it is important to explore the evolution of carbon sink pattern by sorting out the characteristics of land use structure and analyzing its contribution from the perspective of carbon balance,in order to guide the improvement of urban carbon sink efficiency and the realization of the "double carbon" target.The study takes Wuhan city as an example,and the historical evolution of carbon sink pattern,future prediction and optimization paths are studied based on land use structure,aiming to provide reference for Wuhan city’s territorial spatial planning and the exploration of "double carbon" implementation paths from the perspective of "carbon enhancement".The main findings are as follows.(1)The historical evolution of Wuhan’s carbon sink pattern based on land use.During the period of 2000-2015,Wuhan was in a rapid development stage,and the expansion of construction land led to a sharp decrease in the area of cultivated forest land,which led to a continuous decline in the total carbon sink;during the period of 2015-2020,thanks to the vigorous implementation of the policy of cultivated land protection and ecological restoration,the area of cultivated forest land increased and the total carbon sink rebounded.From the perspective of carbon revenue and expenditure,Wuhan’s carbon sink contribution is relatively limited,and the city’s carbon revenue and expenditure have been in an imbalance for 20 years.(2)Projection of carbon sink pattern in Wuhan based on land use.From 2020 to 2035,the total carbon sink in Wuhan will continue to decline and reach the lowest value in 35 years,which is closely related to the continuous reduction of cultivated forest land area.From the perspective of carbon balance,the contribution of carbon sink in Wuhan will continue to decline in the next 15 years,and the carbon balance of the city will be significantly weakened,which reflects the urgent need to optimize the land use structure of Wuhan for carbon sink enhancement.(3)Optimization of Wuhan’s carbon sink pattern based on land use.The optimized total carbon sink and total carbon balance in Wuhan in 2035 are both improved compared with those before the optimization,which indicates that the optimization results are satisfactory overall and can optimize and enhance the carbon sink pattern of the city to a certain extent,and provide a reference for the preparation of the Wuhan 2035 territorial spatial planning scheme.However,it is worth noting that the optimized total carbon sink in Wuhan can only neutralize 16.18% of the city’s carbon emissions,and about 84% of the carbon emissions still need to be broken through from the carbon emission reduction level.